Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$24,057,007 Объем
30 июн. 2027 г.
31 августа
<1%
30 сентября
3%
31 октября
7%
30 ноября
10%
31 декабря
16%
30 июня 2027 года
25%
$24,057,007 Объем
31 августа
$1,461,653 Объем
<1%
30 сентября
$490,857 Объем
3%
31 октября
$26,233 Объем
7%
30 ноября
$18,839 Объем
10%
31 декабря
$4,120,003 Объем
16%
30 июня 2027 года
$251,699 Объем
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Объем
$24,057,007Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$24,057,007Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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