Recent polling shows Republican candidates drawing 8-15% support among Black voters in 2026 midterm surveys, with party identification near 14%, reflecting modest 2024 gains that have since eroded. Economic concerns, inflation, and specific administration actions have driven disapproval ratings above 70% in multiple trackers, reinforcing Democratic margins near 70% while limiting further GOP inroads. The tight clustering of probabilities around 8-13% stems from variable turnout patterns, regional differences, and ongoing debates over issues like education and criminal justice that could shift small blocs either way. Scheduled midterm results and any late-cycle economic data remain key variables that could separate the leading ranges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМенее 8% 45%
12–13% 45%
8–9% 44%
10–11% 44%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 нояб. 2026 г.
Менее 8%
45%
8–9%
44%
10–11%
44%
12–13%
45%
14–15%
43%
16–17%
36%
18%+
41%
Менее 8% 45%
12–13% 45%
8–9% 44%
10–11% 44%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 нояб. 2026 г.
Менее 8%
$20 Объем
45%
8–9%
$20 Объем
44%
10–11%
$20 Объем
44%
12–13%
$20 Объем
45%
14–15%
$20 Объем
43%
16–17%
$20 Объем
36%
18%+
$20 Объем
41%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling shows Republican candidates drawing 8-15% support among Black voters in 2026 midterm surveys, with party identification near 14%, reflecting modest 2024 gains that have since eroded. Economic concerns, inflation, and specific administration actions have driven disapproval ratings above 70% in multiple trackers, reinforcing Democratic margins near 70% while limiting further GOP inroads. The tight clustering of probabilities around 8-13% stems from variable turnout patterns, regional differences, and ongoing debates over issues like education and criminal justice that could shift small blocs either way. Scheduled midterm results and any late-cycle economic data remain key variables that could separate the leading ranges.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Объем
$140Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling shows Republican candidates drawing 8-15% support among Black voters in 2026 midterm surveys, with party identification near 14%, reflecting modest 2024 gains that have since eroded. Economic concerns, inflation, and specific administration actions have driven disapproval ratings above 70% in multiple trackers, reinforcing Democratic margins near 70% while limiting further GOP inroads. The tight clustering of probabilities around 8-13% stems from variable turnout patterns, regional differences, and ongoing debates over issues like education and criminal justice that could shift small blocs either way. Scheduled midterm results and any late-cycle economic data remain key variables that could separate the leading ranges.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Объем
$140Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Republican candidates drawing 8-15% support among Black voters in 2026 midterm surveys, with party identification near 14%, reflecting modest 2024 gains that have since eroded. Economic concerns, inflation, and specific administration actions have driven disapproval ratings above 70% in multiple trackers, reinforcing Democratic margins near 70% while limiting further GOP inroads. The tight clustering of probabilities around 8-13% stems from variable turnout patterns, regional differences, and ongoing debates over issues like education and criminal justice that could shift small blocs either way. Scheduled midterm results and any late-cycle economic data remain key variables that could separate the leading ranges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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