Patrick Ball leads the market at 48% implied probability for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series due to The Pitt’s dominant critical reception and multiple nominations in the category, which reflect strong guild and precursor momentum for the Max medical drama. Tom Pelphrey sits at 32.5% on the strength of his performance in Task, a newer HBO Max entry gaining traction in late-season voting patterns. Shawn Hatosy trails at 14.6% as another Pitt cast member, while Jack Lowden (Slow Horses), Billy Crudup (The Morning Show), and the remaining nominees trail with under 5% each amid split voter attention. The ceremony timeline and final guild signals remain key swing factors before voting closes.