Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi faces Republican Rudy Recile in California's 8th congressional district, which carries a D+19 partisan voter index and rates as solidly Democratic across major forecasters. Garamendi advanced from the June top-two primary with over 54 percent of the vote against a split Democratic field, while Recile captured the second spot. Trader consensus across margin buckets and win probabilities reflects a closely contested outcome, driven by the district's mix of urban and suburban voters in counties such as Solano and Contra Costa, variable turnout patterns, and the broader 2026 midterm environment. No major campaign developments have altered positioning in the past month, leaving room for shifts from fundraising reports, endorsements, or late-cycle national trends ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-08 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
CA-08 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Демократ 55%+ 43.1%
Демократ 50-55% 42.8%
Победа республиканца 42.3%
Демократ 30-35% 42.1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ 55%+
43%
Демократ 50-55%
43%
Демократ 45-50%
20%
Демократ 40-45%
41%
Демократ 35-40%
27%
Демократ 30-35%
42%
Демократ 25-30%
42%
Демократ 15–25%
42%
Демократ 0-15%
30%
Победа республиканца
42%
Демократ 55%+ 43.1%
Демократ 50-55% 42.8%
Победа республиканца 42.3%
Демократ 30-35% 42.1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ 55%+
$334 Объем
43%
Демократ 50-55%
$304 Объем
43%
Демократ 45-50%
$304 Объем
20%
Демократ 40-45%
$304 Объем
41%
Демократ 35-40%
$304 Объем
27%
Демократ 30-35%
$334 Объем
42%
Демократ 25-30%
$334 Объем
42%
Демократ 15–25%
$304 Объем
42%
Демократ 0-15%
$384 Объем
30%
Победа республиканца
$304 Объем
42%
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi faces Republican Rudy Recile in California's 8th congressional district, which carries a D+19 partisan voter index and rates as solidly Democratic across major forecasters. Garamendi advanced from the June top-two primary with over 54 percent of the vote against a split Democratic field, while Recile captured the second spot. Trader consensus across margin buckets and win probabilities reflects a closely contested outcome, driven by the district's mix of urban and suburban voters in counties such as Solano and Contra Costa, variable turnout patterns, and the broader 2026 midterm environment. No major campaign developments have altered positioning in the past month, leaving room for shifts from fundraising reports, endorsements, or late-cycle national trends ahead of the November 3 general election.
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Объем
$3,211Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi faces Republican Rudy Recile in California's 8th congressional district, which carries a D+19 partisan voter index and rates as solidly Democratic across major forecasters. Garamendi advanced from the June top-two primary with over 54 percent of the vote against a split Democratic field, while Recile captured the second spot. Trader consensus across margin buckets and win probabilities reflects a closely contested outcome, driven by the district's mix of urban and suburban voters in counties such as Solano and Contra Costa, variable turnout patterns, and the broader 2026 midterm environment. No major campaign developments have altered positioning in the past month, leaving room for shifts from fundraising reports, endorsements, or late-cycle national trends ahead of the November 3 general election.
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$3,211Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi faces Republican Rudy Recile in California's 8th congressional district, which carries a D+19 partisan voter index and rates as solidly Democratic across major forecasters. Garamendi advanced from the June top-two primary with over 54 percent of the vote against a split Democratic field, while Recile captured the second spot. Trader consensus across margin buckets and win probabilities reflects a closely contested outcome, driven by the district's mix of urban and suburban voters in counties such as Solano and Contra Costa, variable turnout patterns, and the broader 2026 midterm environment. No major campaign developments have altered positioning in the past month, leaving room for shifts from fundraising reports, endorsements, or late-cycle national trends ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-09 в 2026 году с отрывом в 25%-30%?
45%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-06 в 2026 году с отрывом 25% или более?
44%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-26 в 2026 году с разницей в 30–35%?
44%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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