Traders assign a 96.7% implied probability that the United States will not annex any territory in 2026 due to the absence of pending legislation, treaty negotiations, or executive proposals advancing congressional approval for new territorial incorporation. Annexation requires Senate ratification or specific statutory action, neither of which appears on the current legislative calendar amid priorities centered on alliances, trade policy, and administration of existing territories. No recent diplomatic signals or disputes have escalated toward formal U.S. control. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unforeseen bilateral agreement, sudden resolution of a long-standing claim through treaty ratification, or an unanticipated request meeting constitutional thresholds before December 31.