**Carlos Alcaraz’s participation in the 2026 US Open (starting August 30) carries an implied 68.5% probability for a “Yes” outcome, reflecting his confirmed presence on the official entry list alongside recovery progress from a right-wrist tenosynovitis injury that has sidelined the defending champion since his April withdrawal from Barcelona.** The 23-year-old world No. 2 has not played a competitive match in more than four months, missing Roland Garros, Wimbledon, Montreal, and the Cincinnati Masters 1000 after withdrawing from the latter on August 4 due to ongoing rehabilitation needs. Recent updates indicate steady improvement, with low-intensity hitting sessions cleared by his medical team and no new setbacks reported, positioning the hard-court major as the planned return point. However, the extended absence raises concerns about match readiness for best-of-five sets, prompting cautionary comments from former players about potential risks of a direct comeback without tune-up matches. Winston-Salem (beginning August 23) remains a possible final pre-US Open option, though Alcaraz has not committed. Trader sentiment balances the likelihood of a cautious but cleared return—supported by his youth, prior hard-court success, and lack of fresh injury developments—against the realistic chance of a late withdrawal if full intensity cannot be achieved in time.