The extended procedural timelines in the ICJ South Africa v. Israel case represent the dominant factor behind the 82% trader consensus on “No.” In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029, pushing any potential merits hearing and judgment well beyond December 2027. The parallel ICC arrest warrants target war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and no international court has issued a genocide conviction against Israel or its officials. High evidentiary requirements for proving specific intent, combined with ongoing third-state interventions and the absence of enforcement mechanisms, further reduce the near-term probability of an adverse finding.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$91,457 Vol.
$91,457 Vol.
31 dez 2027
$91,457 Vol.
$91,457 Vol.
31 dez 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The extended procedural timelines in the ICJ South Africa v. Israel case represent the dominant factor behind the 82% trader consensus on “No.” In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029, pushing any potential merits hearing and judgment well beyond December 2027. The parallel ICC arrest warrants target war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and no international court has issued a genocide conviction against Israel or its officials. High evidentiary requirements for proving specific intent, combined with ongoing third-state interventions and the absence of enforcement mechanisms, further reduce the near-term probability of an adverse finding.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$91,457Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The extended procedural timelines in the ICJ South Africa v. Israel case represent the dominant factor behind the 82% trader consensus on “No.” In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029, pushing any potential merits hearing and judgment well beyond December 2027. The parallel ICC arrest warrants target war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and no international court has issued a genocide conviction against Israel or its officials. High evidentiary requirements for proving specific intent, combined with ongoing third-state interventions and the absence of enforcement mechanisms, further reduce the near-term probability of an adverse finding.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$91,457Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extended procedural timelines in the ICJ South Africa v. Israel case represent the dominant factor behind the 82% trader consensus on “No.” In May 2026 the court set South Africa’s reply deadline for November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder for May 2029, pushing any potential merits hearing and judgment well beyond December 2027. The parallel ICC arrest warrants target war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide, and no international court has issued a genocide conviction against Israel or its officials. High evidentiary requirements for proving specific intent, combined with ongoing third-state interventions and the absence of enforcement mechanisms, further reduce the near-term probability of an adverse finding.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions