Skip to main content
icon for Who will replace Boris Johnson?

Who will replace Boris Johnson?

icon for Who will replace Boris Johnson?

Who will replace Boris Johnson?

$226,670 Vol.

31 dez 2022
Polymarket

$226,670 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak

$145,420 Vol.

No

icon for Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt

$45,487 Vol.

No

icon for Liz Truss

Liz Truss

$31,358 Vol.

Yes

icon for Tom Tugendhat

Tom Tugendhat

$3,554 Vol.

No

icon for Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch

$851 Vol.

No

In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rishi Sunak wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Rishi Sunak announces he is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Rishi Sunak is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Rishi Sunak from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Rishi Sunak. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Penny Mordaunt wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Penny Mordaunt announces she is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Penny Mordaunt is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Penny Mordaunt from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Penny Mordaunt. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Liz Truss wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Liz Truss announces she is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Liz Truss is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Liz Truss from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Liz Truss. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Tugendhat wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Tom Tugendhat announces he is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Tom Tugendhat is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Tom Tugendhat from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Tom Tugendhat. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kemi Badenoch wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Kemi Badenoch announces she is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Kemi Badenoch is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Kemi Badenoch from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Kemi Badenoch. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.

In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen.

The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022.

---

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rishi Sunak wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No."

This market may only resolve to "No" once Rishi Sunak announces he is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Rishi Sunak is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Rishi Sunak from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Rishi Sunak.

Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.
Volume
$226,670
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rishi Sunak wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Rishi Sunak announces he is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Rishi Sunak is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Rishi Sunak from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Rishi Sunak. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.
In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rishi Sunak wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Rishi Sunak announces he is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Rishi Sunak is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Rishi Sunak from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Rishi Sunak. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Penny Mordaunt wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Penny Mordaunt announces she is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Penny Mordaunt is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Penny Mordaunt from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Penny Mordaunt. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Liz Truss wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Liz Truss announces she is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Liz Truss is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Liz Truss from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Liz Truss. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Tugendhat wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Tom Tugendhat announces he is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Tom Tugendhat is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Tom Tugendhat from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Tom Tugendhat. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kemi Badenoch wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Kemi Badenoch announces she is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Kemi Badenoch is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Kemi Badenoch from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Kemi Badenoch. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.

In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen.

The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022.

---

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rishi Sunak wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No."

This market may only resolve to "No" once Rishi Sunak announces he is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Rishi Sunak is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Rishi Sunak from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Rishi Sunak.

Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.
Volume
$226,670
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2022, 8:00 PM ET
In the wake of the so called 'Chris Pincher scandal' in the United Kingdom, in the first week of July 2022, over 50 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, and trade envoys resigned. This was the largest series of such resignations in British history, and many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis. As a result, On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson, the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2019, announced his resignation as party leader, but plans to remain as prime minister until a successor is chosen. The 2022 Conservative Party leadership election to determine Boris Johnson's successor as Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party is due to start on July 13, 2022, with final results expected on September 5, 2022. --- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rishi Sunak wins the election to become the Conservative Party leader succeeding Boris Johnson. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Boris Johnson, as chosen by a Conservative Party leadership contest. The primary resolution source will be official government sources reporting the result of the election; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If the successor to Boris Johnson is not known by December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to "No." This market may only resolve to "No" once Rishi Sunak announces he is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or the Conservative party announces Rishi Sunak is no longer in contention for head of the Conservative Party, or election results eliminate Rishi Sunak from the running for leader of the Conservative Party, or the next leader of the Conservative Party after Boris Johnson is officially selected and it is not Rishi Sunak. Please note that acting leaderships do not count toward the resolution of this market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will replace Boris Johnson?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Liz Truss" at 100%, followed by "Rishi Sunak" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will replace Boris Johnson?" has generated $226.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 12, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will replace Boris Johnson?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will replace Boris Johnson?" is "Liz Truss" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rishi Sunak" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will replace Boris Johnson?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.