Justin Gaethje holds the undisputed UFC lightweight title after capturing the interim belt via unanimous decision over Paddy Pimblett in January 2026 and unifying it with a fourth-round TKO of former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250. The 37-year-old veteran’s recent run, including two signature wins inside the first half of the year, has solidified trader consensus around his ability to retain the strap through December. Limited activity expectations for Gaethje in the second half, combined with Topuria’s earlier hiatus, have kept his implied probability elevated while positioning Arman Tsarukyan as the clearest long-shot challenger should a late-year title bout materialize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJustin Gaethje 74.6%
Arman Tsarukyan 7.3%
Paddy Pimblett 4.5%
Ilia Topuria 4.3%
$652,753 Vol.
$652,753 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Ilia Topuria
4%
Arman Tsarukyan
13%
Charles Oliveira
1%
Max Holloway
1%
Justin Gaethje
75%
Paddy Pimblett
5%
Dan Hooker
<1%
Mateusz Gamrot
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
1%
Rafael Fiziev
<1%
Renato Moicano
<1%
Mauricio Ruffy
<1%
Justin Gaethje 74.6%
Arman Tsarukyan 7.3%
Paddy Pimblett 4.5%
Ilia Topuria 4.3%
$652,753 Vol.
$652,753 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Ilia Topuria
$16,634 Vol.
4%
Arman Tsarukyan
$7,752 Vol.
13%
Charles Oliveira
$6,474 Vol.
1%
Max Holloway
$15,616 Vol.
1%
Justin Gaethje
$17,883 Vol.
75%
Paddy Pimblett
$525,021 Vol.
5%
Dan Hooker
$2,174 Vol.
<1%
Mateusz Gamrot
$1,993 Vol.
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
$52,989 Vol.
1%
Rafael Fiziev
$2,086 Vol.
<1%
Renato Moicano
$2,429 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Ruffy
$1,701 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Justin Gaethje holds the undisputed UFC lightweight title after capturing the interim belt via unanimous decision over Paddy Pimblett in January 2026 and unifying it with a fourth-round TKO of former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250. The 37-year-old veteran’s recent run, including two signature wins inside the first half of the year, has solidified trader consensus around his ability to retain the strap through December. Limited activity expectations for Gaethje in the second half, combined with Topuria’s earlier hiatus, have kept his implied probability elevated while positioning Arman Tsarukyan as the clearest long-shot challenger should a late-year title bout materialize.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$652,753Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Justin Gaethje holds the undisputed UFC lightweight title after capturing the interim belt via unanimous decision over Paddy Pimblett in January 2026 and unifying it with a fourth-round TKO of former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250. The 37-year-old veteran’s recent run, including two signature wins inside the first half of the year, has solidified trader consensus around his ability to retain the strap through December. Limited activity expectations for Gaethje in the second half, combined with Topuria’s earlier hiatus, have kept his implied probability elevated while positioning Arman Tsarukyan as the clearest long-shot challenger should a late-year title bout materialize.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$652,753Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Justin Gaethje holds the undisputed UFC lightweight title after capturing the interim belt via unanimous decision over Paddy Pimblett in January 2026 and unifying it with a fourth-round TKO of former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250. The 37-year-old veteran’s recent run, including two signature wins inside the first half of the year, has solidified trader consensus around his ability to retain the strap through December. Limited activity expectations for Gaethje in the second half, combined with Topuria’s earlier hiatus, have kept his implied probability elevated while positioning Arman Tsarukyan as the clearest long-shot challenger should a late-year title bout materialize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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