FIFA’s repeated public affirmations that Iran will compete as scheduled in Group G, combined with the outright rejection of replacement proposals by both the governing body and Italian officials, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring no substitution. Geopolitical friction prompted a U.S. envoy’s suggestion to swap Iran for Italy, yet FIFA president Gianni Infantino dismissed any “Plan B,” and Italy’s sports minister labeled the idea inappropriate and contrary to qualification rules. Recent adjustments, such as shifting Iran’s training base to Mexico while retaining U.S. match venues, further signal logistical accommodation rather than exclusion. Only an unforeseen late withdrawal by Iran itself could realistically alter the field before the tournament begins.