Ursula von der Leyen secured re-election by the European Parliament in July 2024 for a full five-year mandate extending through the 2029 elections, creating a structural barrier to any 2026 departure. She has continued directing Commission priorities on defense industrial capacity, EU-NATO coordination, and competitiveness into mid-2026, with parliamentary backing sufficient to defeat no-confidence motions and maintain member-state support despite occasional frictions. European Parliament dynamics have shown no coalition breakdowns or resignation signals capable of forcing an early exit. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outlook include a sudden health event, major political scandal eroding broad backing, or abrupt deterioration in parliamentary majorities before year-end.