The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report shifted the projected depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced revenue from the 2025 tax law changes. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034 depletion, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 83 percent of scheduled benefits without congressional action. Reserves have already declined amid costs exceeding non-interest income since 2010, widening the long-term actuarial shortfall. Traders watch for any legislative reforms to payroll taxes or benefits, as well as updates in future trustee assumptions, that could alter these timelines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoInsolvente da Previdência Social por...?
Insolvente da Previdência Social por...?
NOVO
31 dez 2028
31 de dezembro de 2027
11%
31 de dezembro de 2028
17%
$394 Vol.
31 de dezembro de 2027
$349 Vol.
11%
31 de dezembro de 2028
$45 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report shifted the projected depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced revenue from the 2025 tax law changes. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034 depletion, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 83 percent of scheduled benefits without congressional action. Reserves have already declined amid costs exceeding non-interest income since 2010, widening the long-term actuarial shortfall. Traders watch for any legislative reforms to payroll taxes or benefits, as well as updates in future trustee assumptions, that could alter these timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Volume
$394Data de Término
1 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report shifted the projected depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced revenue from the 2025 tax law changes. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034 depletion, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 83 percent of scheduled benefits without congressional action. Reserves have already declined amid costs exceeding non-interest income since 2010, widening the long-term actuarial shortfall. Traders watch for any legislative reforms to payroll taxes or benefits, as well as updates in future trustee assumptions, that could alter these timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$394Data de Término
1 jan 2029Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report shifted the projected depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus reduced revenue from the 2025 tax law changes. The combined OASDI funds remain on track for 2034 depletion, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 83 percent of scheduled benefits without congressional action. Reserves have already declined amid costs exceeding non-interest income since 2010, widening the long-term actuarial shortfall. Traders watch for any legislative reforms to payroll taxes or benefits, as well as updates in future trustee assumptions, that could alter these timelines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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