Skip to main content
icon for NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas
Eleições·Primárias De 23 De Junho

NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas

icon for NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas
Eleições·Primárias De 23 De Junho

NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas

Conley 15%+ 97.8%

Conley 5–10% 3.9%

Conley 10–15% <1%

Conley <5% <1%

Polymarket

$56,861 Vol.

Conley 15%+ 97.8%

Conley 5–10% 3.9%

Conley 10–15% <1%

Conley <5% <1%

Polymarket

$56,861 Vol.

Conley 15%+

$21,052 Vol.

98%

Conley 10–15%

$23,361 Vol.

1%

Conley 5–10%

$5,033 Vol.

4%

Conley <5%

$4,532 Vol.

<1%

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cait Conley's decisive victory in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York's 17th congressional district has driven overwhelming trader consensus for a margin exceeding 15 percentage points. Official results show her securing 51.4% of the vote against Beth Davidson's 29% and Effie Phillips-Staley's 16%, creating a gap of more than 22 points that aligns with her background as a West Point graduate, combat veteran, and national security specialist. This outcome reflects strong support consolidation among Democratic primary voters in the Hudson Valley district ahead of the general election matchup. While certified tallies and any residual challenges from lower-performing candidates could theoretically alter narrow interpretations, the scale of the lead makes shifts to smaller margins highly improbable.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$56,861
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cait Conley's decisive victory in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York's 17th congressional district has driven overwhelming trader consensus for a margin exceeding 15 percentage points. Official results show her securing 51.4% of the vote against Beth Davidson's 29% and Effie Phillips-Staley's 16%, creating a gap of more than 22 points that aligns with her background as a West Point graduate, combat veteran, and national security specialist. This outcome reflects strong support consolidation among Democratic primary voters in the Hudson Valley district ahead of the general election matchup. While certified tallies and any residual challenges from lower-performing candidates could theoretically alter narrow interpretations, the scale of the lead makes shifts to smaller margins highly improbable.

Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$56,861
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Relacionado

icon for Claire Valdez vencerá a primária democrata do NY-07 por mais de 15%?

Claire Valdez vencerá a primária democrata do NY-07 por mais de 15%?

99%
Sim
icon for Darializa Avila Chevalier vencerá a Primária Democrata do NY-13 por menos de 5%?

Darializa Avila Chevalier vencerá a Primária Democrata do NY-13 por menos de 5%?

98%
Sim
icon for Micah Lasher vencerá a primária democrata do NY-12 por menos de 5%?

Micah Lasher vencerá a primária democrata do NY-12 por menos de 5%?

98%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Conley 15%+" at 98%, followed by "Conley 5–10%" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas" has generated $56.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas" is "Conley 15%+" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Conley 5–10%" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-17 Margem de Vitória das Primárias Democráticas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.