Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no magnitude-8.0-or-greater earthquake occurring globally by June 30 because such events remain statistically rare on short timescales, with USGS records showing an average of roughly one to two megaquakes worldwide per year. The most recent confirmed large event, a 7.8 offshore the Philippines on June 8, fell short of the threshold and produced no aftershock sequence or stress-transfer signals indicating rapid escalation, according to official catalogs. Broader monitoring through mid-June reveals typical background seismicity without anomalous swarms or foreshock patterns that have historically preceded M8+ ruptures. While sudden triggering on subduction zones such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia cannot be ruled out, the brief remaining window and absence of new USGS or international agency alerts reinforce the market’s strong consensus that resolution will favor “No.”