Persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with Middle East-driven oil price pressures and a still-resilient labor market, have anchored the FOMC’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% range through the March, April, and June 2026 meetings. April minutes revealed that a majority of officials now view additional policy firming as potentially appropriate should price pressures remain elevated, shifting the market-implied path firmly toward three consecutive pauses. With the June 16–17 meeting just days away and no major downward surprises in recent CPI or employment data, trader consensus at 99.2% for Pause–Pause–Pause reflects this data-dependent hawkish tilt. A sharp, unexpected cooling in June inflation or a marked deterioration in payrolls could still reopen the door to an earlier cut.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPausar–Pausar–Pausar 99.3%
Pausa–Pausa–Corte <1%
Outros <1%
$1,602,043 Vol.
$1,602,043 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar
99%
Pausa–Pausa–Corte
1%
Outros
<1%
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar 99.3%
Pausa–Pausa–Corte <1%
Outros <1%
$1,602,043 Vol.
$1,602,043 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–Pausar–Pausar
$255,610 Vol.
99%
Pausa–Pausa–Corte
$259,679 Vol.
1%
Outros
$341,413 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with Middle East-driven oil price pressures and a still-resilient labor market, have anchored the FOMC’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% range through the March, April, and June 2026 meetings. April minutes revealed that a majority of officials now view additional policy firming as potentially appropriate should price pressures remain elevated, shifting the market-implied path firmly toward three consecutive pauses. With the June 16–17 meeting just days away and no major downward surprises in recent CPI or employment data, trader consensus at 99.2% for Pause–Pause–Pause reflects this data-dependent hawkish tilt. A sharp, unexpected cooling in June inflation or a marked deterioration in payrolls could still reopen the door to an earlier cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,602,043Data de Término
17 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with Middle East-driven oil price pressures and a still-resilient labor market, have anchored the FOMC’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% range through the March, April, and June 2026 meetings. April minutes revealed that a majority of officials now view additional policy firming as potentially appropriate should price pressures remain elevated, shifting the market-implied path firmly toward three consecutive pauses. With the June 16–17 meeting just days away and no major downward surprises in recent CPI or employment data, trader consensus at 99.2% for Pause–Pause–Pause reflects this data-dependent hawkish tilt. A sharp, unexpected cooling in June inflation or a marked deterioration in payrolls could still reopen the door to an earlier cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,602,043Data de Término
17 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with Middle East-driven oil price pressures and a still-resilient labor market, have anchored the FOMC’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% range through the March, April, and June 2026 meetings. April minutes revealed that a majority of officials now view additional policy firming as potentially appropriate should price pressures remain elevated, shifting the market-implied path firmly toward three consecutive pauses. With the June 16–17 meeting just days away and no major downward surprises in recent CPI or employment data, trader consensus at 99.2% for Pause–Pause–Pause reflects this data-dependent hawkish tilt. A sharp, unexpected cooling in June inflation or a marked deterioration in payrolls could still reopen the door to an earlier cut.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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