Traders view the 10–20% range as the most probable outcome for Count Binface in the Clacton by-election due to his established visibility as a novelty candidate and consistent protest-vote appeal in UK parliamentary contests. Historical patterns show such independents typically capture low-to-mid single-digit shares, yet by-elections often feature elevated turnout among disaffected voters, supporting the current pricing that places 10–30% combined above 68%. Limited recent campaign announcements or media surges have kept probabilities stable, with no major shifts from party withdrawals, endorsements, or local issues altering the consensus within the past month. The sub-10% and 30%+ brackets remain lower-probability tails reflecting baseline expectations versus outlier scenarios.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoClacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface 10–20% 45%
Binface 20–30% 26%
Binface <10% 20%
Binface 30–40% 4.6%
$206,631 Vol.
$206,631 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Binface <10%
20%
Binface 10–20%
43%
Binface 20–30%
26%
Binface 30–40%
5%
Binface 40%+
3%
Binface 10–20% 45%
Binface 20–30% 26%
Binface <10% 20%
Binface 30–40% 4.6%
$206,631 Vol.
$206,631 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Binface <10%
$74,998 Vol.
20%
Binface 10–20%
$42,781 Vol.
43%
Binface 20–30%
$42,912 Vol.
26%
Binface 30–40%
$25,110 Vol.
5%
Binface 40%+
$20,830 Vol.
3%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Traders view the 10–20% range as the most probable outcome for Count Binface in the Clacton by-election due to his established visibility as a novelty candidate and consistent protest-vote appeal in UK parliamentary contests. Historical patterns show such independents typically capture low-to-mid single-digit shares, yet by-elections often feature elevated turnout among disaffected voters, supporting the current pricing that places 10–30% combined above 68%. Limited recent campaign announcements or media surges have kept probabilities stable, with no major shifts from party withdrawals, endorsements, or local issues altering the consensus within the past month. The sub-10% and 30%+ brackets remain lower-probability tails reflecting baseline expectations versus outlier scenarios.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Mercado Aberto: Jul 8, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$206,631Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 8, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Traders view the 10–20% range as the most probable outcome for Count Binface in the Clacton by-election due to his established visibility as a novelty candidate and consistent protest-vote appeal in UK parliamentary contests. Historical patterns show such independents typically capture low-to-mid single-digit shares, yet by-elections often feature elevated turnout among disaffected voters, supporting the current pricing that places 10–30% combined above 68%. Limited recent campaign announcements or media surges have kept probabilities stable, with no major shifts from party withdrawals, endorsements, or local issues altering the consensus within the past month. The sub-10% and 30%+ brackets remain lower-probability tails reflecting baseline expectations versus outlier scenarios.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$206,631Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 8, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the 10–20% range as the most probable outcome for Count Binface in the Clacton by-election due to his established visibility as a novelty candidate and consistent protest-vote appeal in UK parliamentary contests. Historical patterns show such independents typically capture low-to-mid single-digit shares, yet by-elections often feature elevated turnout among disaffected voters, supporting the current pricing that places 10–30% combined above 68%. Limited recent campaign announcements or media surges have kept probabilities stable, with no major shifts from party withdrawals, endorsements, or local issues altering the consensus within the past month. The sub-10% and 30%+ brackets remain lower-probability tails reflecting baseline expectations versus outlier scenarios.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions