Major parties' boycott of the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, triggered by Nigel Farage's early-July resignation to re-contest the seat, has left Count Binface as the sole prominent challenger among 34 candidates. This structural absence concentrates attention on novelty contenders, driving trader consensus toward Binface for second place at the observed 79.5% level. Fragmented support among other independents and minor-party entrants, including William Clouston and Laurence Fox, keeps their implied probabilities below 10% and sustains high uncertainty for the remaining field. The by-election timeline and confirmed candidate list reinforce expectations that vote-splitting among non-Reform options will determine runner-up positioning ahead of polling day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoClacton by-election: 2º lugar
Clacton by-election: 2º lugar
Conde Binface 80%
William Clouston 8.3%
John Stevens 4.4%
Laurence Fox 4.2%
$339,043 Vol.
$339,043 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Conde Binface
80%
William Clouston
8%
John Stevens
4%
Laurence Fox
4%
Nigel Farage
4%
Matthew Bensilum
3%
Piers Corbyn
1%
Natasha Osben
1%
Giles Watling
1%
Tony Mack
1%
Andrew Pemberton
1%
Kai Stephens
1%
Adham Alkhatip
<1%
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul
<1%
Luke Worley
<1%
Pessoa I
<1%
Rees Cowne
<1%
Conde Binface 80%
William Clouston 8.3%
John Stevens 4.4%
Laurence Fox 4.2%
$339,043 Vol.
$339,043 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Conde Binface
$291,868 Vol.
80%
William Clouston
$1,482 Vol.
8%
John Stevens
$3,641 Vol.
4%
Laurence Fox
$8,809 Vol.
4%
Nigel Farage
$14,614 Vol.
4%
Matthew Bensilum
$2,532 Vol.
3%
Piers Corbyn
$1,063 Vol.
1%
Natasha Osben
$2,009 Vol.
1%
Giles Watling
$2,969 Vol.
1%
Tony Mack
$1,484 Vol.
1%
Andrew Pemberton
$1,865 Vol.
1%
Kai Stephens
$990 Vol.
1%
Adham Alkhatip
$944 Vol.
<1%
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul
$1,790 Vol.
<1%
Luke Worley
$1,331 Vol.
<1%
Pessoa I
$791 Vol.
<1%
Rees Cowne
$859 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Major parties' boycott of the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, triggered by Nigel Farage's early-July resignation to re-contest the seat, has left Count Binface as the sole prominent challenger among 34 candidates. This structural absence concentrates attention on novelty contenders, driving trader consensus toward Binface for second place at the observed 79.5% level. Fragmented support among other independents and minor-party entrants, including William Clouston and Laurence Fox, keeps their implied probabilities below 10% and sustains high uncertainty for the remaining field. The by-election timeline and confirmed candidate list reinforce expectations that vote-splitting among non-Reform options will determine runner-up positioning ahead of polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Mercado Aberto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:52 PM ET
Volume
$339,043Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Major parties' boycott of the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, triggered by Nigel Farage's early-July resignation to re-contest the seat, has left Count Binface as the sole prominent challenger among 34 candidates. This structural absence concentrates attention on novelty contenders, driving trader consensus toward Binface for second place at the observed 79.5% level. Fragmented support among other independents and minor-party entrants, including William Clouston and Laurence Fox, keeps their implied probabilities below 10% and sustains high uncertainty for the remaining field. The by-election timeline and confirmed candidate list reinforce expectations that vote-splitting among non-Reform options will determine runner-up positioning ahead of polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$339,043Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Major parties' boycott of the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, triggered by Nigel Farage's early-July resignation to re-contest the seat, has left Count Binface as the sole prominent challenger among 34 candidates. This structural absence concentrates attention on novelty contenders, driving trader consensus toward Binface for second place at the observed 79.5% level. Fragmented support among other independents and minor-party entrants, including William Clouston and Laurence Fox, keeps their implied probabilities below 10% and sustains high uncertainty for the remaining field. The by-election timeline and confirmed candidate list reinforce expectations that vote-splitting among non-Reform options will determine runner-up positioning ahead of polling day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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