The elevated 88% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 29–30 meeting reflects trader consensus that policymakers will deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at the September 17–18 gathering, consistent with recent surveys showing unanimous expectations for that move amid underlying CPI near the 2% target and persistent yen weakness. Following the June increase to 1%, markets price a measured normalization path with the next adjustment more likely in December or January rather than a back-to-back October hike, as financial conditions remain accommodative and inflation risks have not escalated sufficiently to accelerate the pace. Key upcoming catalysts include the September decision, fresh CPI data, and any shifts in guidance from Governor Ueda.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 88%
25 bps increase 12%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$88,201 Vol.
$88,201 Vol.
29 out 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
88%
25 bps increase
12%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 88%
25 bps increase 12%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$88,201 Vol.
$88,201 Vol.
29 out 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,895 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$7,220 Vol.
1%
No change
$33,272 Vol.
88%
25 bps increase
$33,089 Vol.
12%
50+ bps increase
$10,723 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The elevated 88% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 29–30 meeting reflects trader consensus that policymakers will deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at the September 17–18 gathering, consistent with recent surveys showing unanimous expectations for that move amid underlying CPI near the 2% target and persistent yen weakness. Following the June increase to 1%, markets price a measured normalization path with the next adjustment more likely in December or January rather than a back-to-back October hike, as financial conditions remain accommodative and inflation risks have not escalated sufficiently to accelerate the pace. Key upcoming catalysts include the September decision, fresh CPI data, and any shifts in guidance from Governor Ueda.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$88,201Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The elevated 88% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 29–30 meeting reflects trader consensus that policymakers will deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at the September 17–18 gathering, consistent with recent surveys showing unanimous expectations for that move amid underlying CPI near the 2% target and persistent yen weakness. Following the June increase to 1%, markets price a measured normalization path with the next adjustment more likely in December or January rather than a back-to-back October hike, as financial conditions remain accommodative and inflation risks have not escalated sufficiently to accelerate the pace. Key upcoming catalysts include the September decision, fresh CPI data, and any shifts in guidance from Governor Ueda.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$88,201Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The elevated 88% implied probability of no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 29–30 meeting reflects trader consensus that policymakers will deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at the September 17–18 gathering, consistent with recent surveys showing unanimous expectations for that move amid underlying CPI near the 2% target and persistent yen weakness. Following the June increase to 1%, markets price a measured normalization path with the next adjustment more likely in December or January rather than a back-to-back October hike, as financial conditions remain accommodative and inflation risks have not escalated sufficiently to accelerate the pace. Key upcoming catalysts include the September decision, fresh CPI data, and any shifts in guidance from Governor Ueda.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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