Carlos Alcaraz’s ongoing right-wrist injury, which has sidelined the world No. 2 since the Barcelona Open in April, remains the dominant factor behind the near-even split in trader sentiment for his 2026 U.S. Open participation. The defending champion has missed multiple majors and Masters 1000 events, including a recent withdrawal from the Cincinnati Open, leaving him without match play for over four months while he continues low-intensity training. His name on the official entry list and reported progress toward full fitness support the slim “Yes” side, yet the absence of confirmed competitive return dates or positive medical clearances fuels the narrow edge for “No.” A late entry into the Winston-Salem Open or cleared participation would strengthen the case for playing, whereas any further postponement or negative update could shift consensus quickly ahead of the late-August hard-court Grand Slam.