Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because the one-month window leaves insufficient time for the negotiations, approvals, and formal announcements required for normalization agreements. Recent reporting shows stalled progress with leading candidates such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to link any deal to a Palestinian state and other conditions that remain unmet amid ongoing regional tensions. Kazakhstan’s accession occurred in November 2025, with no comparable developments since. Diplomatic processes of this nature typically unfold over months rather than weeks, and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled signing events fall inside the resolution period. Late surprises, such as an unexpected bilateral announcement, remain theoretically possible but face significant procedural and political barriers.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because the one-month window leaves insufficient time for the negotiations, approvals, and formal announcements required for normalization agreements. Recent reporting shows stalled progress with leading candidates such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to link any deal to a Palestinian state and other conditions that remain unmet amid ongoing regional tensions. Kazakhstan’s accession occurred in November 2025, with no comparable developments since. Diplomatic processes of this nature typically unfold over months rather than weeks, and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled signing events fall inside the resolution period. Late surprises, such as an unexpected bilateral announcement, remain theoretically possible but face significant procedural and political barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$586Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because the one-month window leaves insufficient time for the negotiations, approvals, and formal announcements required for normalization agreements. Recent reporting shows stalled progress with leading candidates such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to link any deal to a Palestinian state and other conditions that remain unmet amid ongoing regional tensions. Kazakhstan’s accession occurred in November 2025, with no comparable developments since. Diplomatic processes of this nature typically unfold over months rather than weeks, and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled signing events fall inside the resolution period. Late surprises, such as an unexpected bilateral announcement, remain theoretically possible but face significant procedural and political barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$586Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31 because the one-month window leaves insufficient time for the negotiations, approvals, and formal announcements required for normalization agreements. Recent reporting shows stalled progress with leading candidates such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to link any deal to a Palestinian state and other conditions that remain unmet amid ongoing regional tensions. Kazakhstan’s accession occurred in November 2025, with no comparable developments since. Diplomatic processes of this nature typically unfold over months rather than weeks, and no verified breakthroughs or scheduled signing events fall inside the resolution period. Late surprises, such as an unexpected bilateral announcement, remain theoretically possible but face significant procedural and political barriers.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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