Speculation about possible retirements by aging conservative justices like Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito continues to shape trader views on the next Trump administration Supreme Court nomination, yet no vacancy has materialized by mid-2026. With a wide field of Trump-appointed circuit judges and Republican senators under consideration—including James Ho, Neomi Rao, Andrew Oldham, Amul Thapar, Patrick Bumatay, Steven Menashi, Aileen Cannon, Gregory Katsas, John Sauer, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz—the market reflects broad uncertainty over the president's eventual choice and Senate confirmation dynamics. Recent end-of-term retirement chatter and ongoing judicial writings have kept probabilities tightly clustered, as no single candidate has received decisive public signals. A formal retirement announcement, targeted presidential endorsement, or shifting Senate priorities could quickly differentiate leading contenders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWho will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
James Ho 23%
Patrick Bumatay 20.2%
Mike Lee 15%
Andrew Oldham 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 19, 2029
James Ho
23%
Patrick Bumatay
20%
Mike Lee
15%
Andrew Oldham
14%
Aileen Cannon
12%
John Sauer
11%
Ted Cruz
17%
Neomi Rao
10%
Amul Thapar
7%
Gregory Katsas
5%
Steven Menashi
16%
James Ho 23%
Patrick Bumatay 20.2%
Mike Lee 15%
Andrew Oldham 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 19, 2029
James Ho
$144 Wol.
23%
Patrick Bumatay
$68 Wol.
20%
Mike Lee
$90 Wol.
15%
Andrew Oldham
$611 Wol.
14%
Aileen Cannon
$143 Wol.
12%
John Sauer
$95 Wol.
11%
Ted Cruz
$89 Wol.
17%
Neomi Rao
$82 Wol.
10%
Amul Thapar
$80 Wol.
7%
Gregory Katsas
$64 Wol.
5%
Steven Menashi
$77 Wol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Speculation about possible retirements by aging conservative justices like Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito continues to shape trader views on the next Trump administration Supreme Court nomination, yet no vacancy has materialized by mid-2026. With a wide field of Trump-appointed circuit judges and Republican senators under consideration—including James Ho, Neomi Rao, Andrew Oldham, Amul Thapar, Patrick Bumatay, Steven Menashi, Aileen Cannon, Gregory Katsas, John Sauer, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz—the market reflects broad uncertainty over the president's eventual choice and Senate confirmation dynamics. Recent end-of-term retirement chatter and ongoing judicial writings have kept probabilities tightly clustered, as no single candidate has received decisive public signals. A formal retirement announcement, targeted presidential endorsement, or shifting Senate priorities could quickly differentiate leading contenders.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,543Data zakończenia
Jan 19, 2029Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Speculation about possible retirements by aging conservative justices like Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito continues to shape trader views on the next Trump administration Supreme Court nomination, yet no vacancy has materialized by mid-2026. With a wide field of Trump-appointed circuit judges and Republican senators under consideration—including James Ho, Neomi Rao, Andrew Oldham, Amul Thapar, Patrick Bumatay, Steven Menashi, Aileen Cannon, Gregory Katsas, John Sauer, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz—the market reflects broad uncertainty over the president's eventual choice and Senate confirmation dynamics. Recent end-of-term retirement chatter and ongoing judicial writings have kept probabilities tightly clustered, as no single candidate has received decisive public signals. A formal retirement announcement, targeted presidential endorsement, or shifting Senate priorities could quickly differentiate leading contenders.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,543Data zakończenia
Jan 19, 2029Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Speculation about possible retirements by aging conservative justices like Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito continues to shape trader views on the next Trump administration Supreme Court nomination, yet no vacancy has materialized by mid-2026. With a wide field of Trump-appointed circuit judges and Republican senators under consideration—including James Ho, Neomi Rao, Andrew Oldham, Amul Thapar, Patrick Bumatay, Steven Menashi, Aileen Cannon, Gregory Katsas, John Sauer, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz—the market reflects broad uncertainty over the president's eventual choice and Senate confirmation dynamics. Recent end-of-term retirement chatter and ongoing judicial writings have kept probabilities tightly clustered, as no single candidate has received decisive public signals. A formal retirement announcement, targeted presidential endorsement, or shifting Senate priorities could quickly differentiate leading contenders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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