Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the organization's continued operational cohesion through repeated ministerial meetings and coordinated production decisions into mid-2026. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reaffirmed commitments to market stability, extended voluntary cuts through year-end, and adjusted output targets amid shifting supply forecasts and geopolitical disruptions such as the Iran conflict. While the UAE's planned exit has prompted commentary on reduced influence, the group maintains active quota management and demand projections rather than fragmenting. Realistic challenges remain limited to accelerated additional exits or unprecedented policy breakdowns, though historical precedent shows the cartel adapting through periods of internal tension without formal dissolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,502 Wol.
$29,502 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$29,502 Wol.
$29,502 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the organization's continued operational cohesion through repeated ministerial meetings and coordinated production decisions into mid-2026. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reaffirmed commitments to market stability, extended voluntary cuts through year-end, and adjusted output targets amid shifting supply forecasts and geopolitical disruptions such as the Iran conflict. While the UAE's planned exit has prompted commentary on reduced influence, the group maintains active quota management and demand projections rather than fragmenting. Realistic challenges remain limited to accelerated additional exits or unprecedented policy breakdowns, though historical precedent shows the cartel adapting through periods of internal tension without formal dissolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$29,502Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the organization's continued operational cohesion through repeated ministerial meetings and coordinated production decisions into mid-2026. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reaffirmed commitments to market stability, extended voluntary cuts through year-end, and adjusted output targets amid shifting supply forecasts and geopolitical disruptions such as the Iran conflict. While the UAE's planned exit has prompted commentary on reduced influence, the group maintains active quota management and demand projections rather than fragmenting. Realistic challenges remain limited to accelerated additional exits or unprecedented policy breakdowns, though historical precedent shows the cartel adapting through periods of internal tension without formal dissolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$29,502Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the organization's continued operational cohesion through repeated ministerial meetings and coordinated production decisions into mid-2026. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reaffirmed commitments to market stability, extended voluntary cuts through year-end, and adjusted output targets amid shifting supply forecasts and geopolitical disruptions such as the Iran conflict. While the UAE's planned exit has prompted commentary on reduced influence, the group maintains active quota management and demand projections rather than fragmenting. Realistic challenges remain limited to accelerated additional exits or unprecedented policy breakdowns, though historical precedent shows the cartel adapting through periods of internal tension without formal dissolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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