**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 72% implied probability**, reflecting the low baseline frequency of such events and the absence of any confirmed large explosive eruptions through mid-August. Globally, VEI 4+ eruptions average roughly one to three per year, with most volcanic activity limited to VEI 1–3 or effusive styles, as tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Ongoing unrest at sites like Dukono (VEI 3 in May 2026) and Etna has produced ash plumes and lava but no escalation to the required magnitude or volume thresholds. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, model consensus and historical analogs indicate limited near-term potential for rapid intensification to VEI 4 unless new unrest develops at high-risk systems. Market odds will likely shift only with official VEI assignments from monitoring agencies or major new eruptive episodes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
Ile dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
3 <1%
$1,156,068 Wol.
$1,156,068 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
71%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 3.6%
3 <1%
$1,156,068 Wol.
$1,156,068 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,082 Wol.
71%
1
$273,925 Wol.
19%
2
$40,877 Wol.
4%
3
$31,654 Wol.
1%
4
$35,005 Wol.
1%
5+
$275,525 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 72% implied probability**, reflecting the low baseline frequency of such events and the absence of any confirmed large explosive eruptions through mid-August. Globally, VEI 4+ eruptions average roughly one to three per year, with most volcanic activity limited to VEI 1–3 or effusive styles, as tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Ongoing unrest at sites like Dukono (VEI 3 in May 2026) and Etna has produced ash plumes and lava but no escalation to the required magnitude or volume thresholds. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, model consensus and historical analogs indicate limited near-term potential for rapid intensification to VEI 4 unless new unrest develops at high-risk systems. Market odds will likely shift only with official VEI assignments from monitoring agencies or major new eruptive episodes.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,156,068Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 72% implied probability**, reflecting the low baseline frequency of such events and the absence of any confirmed large explosive eruptions through mid-August. Globally, VEI 4+ eruptions average roughly one to three per year, with most volcanic activity limited to VEI 1–3 or effusive styles, as tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Ongoing unrest at sites like Dukono (VEI 3 in May 2026) and Etna has produced ash plumes and lava but no escalation to the required magnitude or volume thresholds. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, model consensus and historical analogs indicate limited near-term potential for rapid intensification to VEI 4 unless new unrest develops at high-risk systems. Market odds will likely shift only with official VEI assignments from monitoring agencies or major new eruptive episodes.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,156,068Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 72% implied probability**, reflecting the low baseline frequency of such events and the absence of any confirmed large explosive eruptions through mid-August. Globally, VEI 4+ eruptions average roughly one to three per year, with most volcanic activity limited to VEI 1–3 or effusive styles, as tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Ongoing unrest at sites like Dukono (VEI 3 in May 2026) and Etna has produced ash plumes and lava but no escalation to the required magnitude or volume thresholds. With roughly 4.5 months remaining, model consensus and historical analogs indicate limited near-term potential for rapid intensification to VEI 4 unless new unrest develops at high-risk systems. Market odds will likely shift only with official VEI assignments from monitoring agencies or major new eruptive episodes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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