Recent extreme heat across the western U.S. during July 2026, including multiple all-time station records in Montana, Wyoming, and Utah amid a powerful heat dome, sets a warm baseline entering August. Mixed seasonal outlooks now show above-average temperatures favored in the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, offset by signals for nearer-to-normal or cooler conditions farther east and north tied to evolving El Niño patterns and atmospheric circulation. This uncertainty, combined with only a few days of August data available so far, keeps trader consensus tightly clustered across bins from low single digits to well over 100 records. Key upcoming catalysts include any new heat waves or widespread cooling trends that could quickly separate the probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
61-100 42%
21-60 41%
0-20 40%
151+ 37%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
40%
21-60
41%
61-100
42%
101-150
34%
151+
37%
61-100 42%
21-60 41%
0-20 40%
151+ 37%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
$0 Wol.
40%
21-60
$0 Wol.
41%
61-100
$0 Wol.
42%
101-150
$0 Wol.
34%
151+
$0 Wol.
37%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Recent extreme heat across the western U.S. during July 2026, including multiple all-time station records in Montana, Wyoming, and Utah amid a powerful heat dome, sets a warm baseline entering August. Mixed seasonal outlooks now show above-average temperatures favored in the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, offset by signals for nearer-to-normal or cooler conditions farther east and north tied to evolving El Niño patterns and atmospheric circulation. This uncertainty, combined with only a few days of August data available so far, keeps trader consensus tightly clustered across bins from low single digits to well over 100 records. Key upcoming catalysts include any new heat waves or widespread cooling trends that could quickly separate the probabilities.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Recent extreme heat across the western U.S. during July 2026, including multiple all-time station records in Montana, Wyoming, and Utah amid a powerful heat dome, sets a warm baseline entering August. Mixed seasonal outlooks now show above-average temperatures favored in the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, offset by signals for nearer-to-normal or cooler conditions farther east and north tied to evolving El Niño patterns and atmospheric circulation. This uncertainty, combined with only a few days of August data available so far, keeps trader consensus tightly clustered across bins from low single digits to well over 100 records. Key upcoming catalysts include any new heat waves or widespread cooling trends that could quickly separate the probabilities.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent extreme heat across the western U.S. during July 2026, including multiple all-time station records in Montana, Wyoming, and Utah amid a powerful heat dome, sets a warm baseline entering August. Mixed seasonal outlooks now show above-average temperatures favored in the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, offset by signals for nearer-to-normal or cooler conditions farther east and north tied to evolving El Niño patterns and atmospheric circulation. This uncertainty, combined with only a few days of August data available so far, keeps trader consensus tightly clustered across bins from low single digits to well over 100 records. Key upcoming catalysts include any new heat waves or widespread cooling trends that could quickly separate the probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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