**John Fleming, Louisiana’s state treasurer and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, advanced to the June 27 runoff against Rep. Julia Letlow after the May primary, where both candidates outperformed incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy.** Fleming has continued active campaigning into mid-June, including public events and policy-focused messaging on issues such as carbon storage. Earlier reports from March of job offers (including a CDC-related position) to encourage withdrawal were publicly rejected by Fleming at the time, with no subsequent confirmed developments or statements indicating a change in plans. Traders appear to view the short runway to the runoff, Fleming’s consistent participation, and lack of fresh withdrawal signals as supporting a low probability of dropout, consistent with typical patterns for candidates who reach this stage in Louisiana’s jungle primary system. No major polling shifts, endorsements, or health/financial events have altered this assessment in recent weeks.