President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “immediately” and “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, issued ahead of a summit with Xi Jinping, remains the dominant recent catalyst shaping trader views on whether an explosive test will occur by any near-term deadline. The United States has observed its 1992 moratorium without conducting such a test, relying instead on the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program and subcritical experiments. Technical assessments indicate that full underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation even after a presidential decision, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and ongoing congressional oversight of test-readiness funding introduce additional variables. No explosive test has taken place in the intervening period, leaving outcomes dependent on future executive actions, diplomatic signaling, and legislative appropriations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$668,735 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
1%
2026년 9월 30일
5%
2026년 12월 31일
9%
$668,735 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$40,888 거래량
1%
2026년 9월 30일
$7,044 거래량
5%
2026년 12월 31일
$10,584 거래량
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “immediately” and “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, issued ahead of a summit with Xi Jinping, remains the dominant recent catalyst shaping trader views on whether an explosive test will occur by any near-term deadline. The United States has observed its 1992 moratorium without conducting such a test, relying instead on the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program and subcritical experiments. Technical assessments indicate that full underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation even after a presidential decision, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and ongoing congressional oversight of test-readiness funding introduce additional variables. No explosive test has taken place in the intervening period, leaving outcomes dependent on future executive actions, diplomatic signaling, and legislative appropriations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
거래량
$668,735종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “immediately” and “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, issued ahead of a summit with Xi Jinping, remains the dominant recent catalyst shaping trader views on whether an explosive test will occur by any near-term deadline. The United States has observed its 1992 moratorium without conducting such a test, relying instead on the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program and subcritical experiments. Technical assessments indicate that full underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation even after a presidential decision, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and ongoing congressional oversight of test-readiness funding introduce additional variables. No explosive test has taken place in the intervening period, leaving outcomes dependent on future executive actions, diplomatic signaling, and legislative appropriations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$668,735종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “immediately” and “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, issued ahead of a summit with Xi Jinping, remains the dominant recent catalyst shaping trader views on whether an explosive test will occur by any near-term deadline. The United States has observed its 1992 moratorium without conducting such a test, relying instead on the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program and subcritical experiments. Technical assessments indicate that full underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24–36 months of preparation even after a presidential decision, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and ongoing congressional oversight of test-readiness funding introduce additional variables. No explosive test has taken place in the intervening period, leaving outcomes dependent on future executive actions, diplomatic signaling, and legislative appropriations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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