Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district race, reflected in the 93.5% Republican trader consensus. The southern Illinois district, encompassing areas like Carbondale and O'Fallon, has consistently favored Republicans, as shown by Bost's 74% victory margin in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primaries, limiting early volatility. Cook Political Report rates the seat solidly Republican, underscoring structural advantages from incumbency, fundraising, and district composition. A major scandal, significant health event affecting Bost, or an unexpected national Democratic wave could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$18,276 거래량
$18,276 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
94%
민주당
5%
$18,276 거래량
$18,276 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$7,809 거래량
94%
민주당
$10,467 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district race, reflected in the 93.5% Republican trader consensus. The southern Illinois district, encompassing areas like Carbondale and O'Fallon, has consistently favored Republicans, as shown by Bost's 74% victory margin in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primaries, limiting early volatility. Cook Political Report rates the seat solidly Republican, underscoring structural advantages from incumbency, fundraising, and district composition. A major scandal, significant health event affecting Bost, or an unexpected national Democratic wave could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$18,276종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district race, reflected in the 93.5% Republican trader consensus. The southern Illinois district, encompassing areas like Carbondale and O'Fallon, has consistently favored Republicans, as shown by Bost's 74% victory margin in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primaries, limiting early volatility. Cook Political Report rates the seat solidly Republican, underscoring structural advantages from incumbency, fundraising, and district composition. A major scandal, significant health event affecting Bost, or an unexpected national Democratic wave could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$18,276종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district race, reflected in the 93.5% Republican trader consensus. The southern Illinois district, encompassing areas like Carbondale and O'Fallon, has consistently favored Republicans, as shown by Bost's 74% victory margin in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primaries, limiting early volatility. Cook Political Report rates the seat solidly Republican, underscoring structural advantages from incumbency, fundraising, and district composition. A major scandal, significant health event affecting Bost, or an unexpected national Democratic wave could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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