Florida's special U.S. Senate election, triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation and Ashley Moody's appointment by Governor Ron DeSantis, favors the Republican candidate due to the state's consistent partisan lean in recent federal contests and Moody's established name recognition from prior statewide service as attorney general. Early 2026 general election polling has shown Moody ahead of Democratic primary contenders including Alex Vindman and state Representative Angie Nixon by margins typically ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. With Republican and Democratic primaries set for August 18 and the general election on November 3, traders' 81 percent implied probability for a Republican win aligns with these structural advantages and polling trends, while the 19 percent Democratic share reflects challengers' more limited statewide infrastructure and fundraising position to date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$40,915 거래량
$40,915 거래량
공화당
81%
민주당
19%
$40,915 거래량
$40,915 거래량
공화당
$21,029 거래량
81%
민주당
$19,886 거래량
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's special U.S. Senate election, triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation and Ashley Moody's appointment by Governor Ron DeSantis, favors the Republican candidate due to the state's consistent partisan lean in recent federal contests and Moody's established name recognition from prior statewide service as attorney general. Early 2026 general election polling has shown Moody ahead of Democratic primary contenders including Alex Vindman and state Representative Angie Nixon by margins typically ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. With Republican and Democratic primaries set for August 18 and the general election on November 3, traders' 81 percent implied probability for a Republican win aligns with these structural advantages and polling trends, while the 19 percent Democratic share reflects challengers' more limited statewide infrastructure and fundraising position to date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
거래량
$40,915마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's special U.S. Senate election, triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation and Ashley Moody's appointment by Governor Ron DeSantis, favors the Republican candidate due to the state's consistent partisan lean in recent federal contests and Moody's established name recognition from prior statewide service as attorney general. Early 2026 general election polling has shown Moody ahead of Democratic primary contenders including Alex Vindman and state Representative Angie Nixon by margins typically ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. With Republican and Democratic primaries set for August 18 and the general election on November 3, traders' 81 percent implied probability for a Republican win aligns with these structural advantages and polling trends, while the 19 percent Democratic share reflects challengers' more limited statewide infrastructure and fundraising position to date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$40,915마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's special U.S. Senate election, triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation and Ashley Moody's appointment by Governor Ron DeSantis, favors the Republican candidate due to the state's consistent partisan lean in recent federal contests and Moody's established name recognition from prior statewide service as attorney general. Early 2026 general election polling has shown Moody ahead of Democratic primary contenders including Alex Vindman and state Representative Angie Nixon by margins typically ranging from mid-single digits to low double digits. With Republican and Democratic primaries set for August 18 and the general election on November 3, traders' 81 percent implied probability for a Republican win aligns with these structural advantages and polling trends, while the 19 percent Democratic share reflects challengers' more limited statewide infrastructure and fundraising position to date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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