Hilda Solis's advancement from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the open CA-38 seat has solidified Democratic dominance in trader assessments. The district's strong partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 or greater Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee over Republican Pedro Casas. Solis, a former U.S. Representative and Cabinet secretary with deep local ties in Los Angeles County suburbs, secured a clear primary plurality amid limited Republican opposition and modest overall fundraising for the GOP side. Solid D ratings from nonpartisan forecasters further align with current market consensus. A late-breaking scandal, sharp national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$59,056 거래량
$59,056 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
2%
$59,056 거래량
$59,056 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$29,458 거래량
95%
공화당
$29,599 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hilda Solis's advancement from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the open CA-38 seat has solidified Democratic dominance in trader assessments. The district's strong partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 or greater Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee over Republican Pedro Casas. Solis, a former U.S. Representative and Cabinet secretary with deep local ties in Los Angeles County suburbs, secured a clear primary plurality amid limited Republican opposition and modest overall fundraising for the GOP side. Solid D ratings from nonpartisan forecasters further align with current market consensus. A late-breaking scandal, sharp national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$59,056종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hilda Solis's advancement from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the open CA-38 seat has solidified Democratic dominance in trader assessments. The district's strong partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 or greater Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee over Republican Pedro Casas. Solis, a former U.S. Representative and Cabinet secretary with deep local ties in Los Angeles County suburbs, secured a clear primary plurality amid limited Republican opposition and modest overall fundraising for the GOP side. Solid D ratings from nonpartisan forecasters further align with current market consensus. A late-breaking scandal, sharp national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$59,056종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hilda Solis's advancement from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary for the open CA-38 seat has solidified Democratic dominance in trader assessments. The district's strong partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 or greater Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee over Republican Pedro Casas. Solis, a former U.S. Representative and Cabinet secretary with deep local ties in Los Angeles County suburbs, secured a clear primary plurality amid limited Republican opposition and modest overall fundraising for the GOP side. Solid D ratings from nonpartisan forecasters further align with current market consensus. A late-breaking scandal, sharp national Republican surge, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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