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icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
정치·대표의 집

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
정치·대표의 집

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 89%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 14.5%

Matt Ortega 6.0%

Wendy Huang 4.5%

Polymarket
신규

Aisha Wahab 89%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 14.5%

Matt Ortega 6.0%

Wendy Huang 4.5%

Polymarket
신규

Aisha Wahab

$550 거래량

89%

Melissa Hernandez

$325 거래량

37%

Wendy Huang

$530 거래량

4%

Carin Elam

$265 거래량

3%

Matt Ortega

$265 거래량

6%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$743 거래량

9%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$228 거래량

14%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.**Aisha Wahab holds a strong lead in the CA-14 special election market at 85.5% implied probability, driven by her Democratic Party endorsement from the California Democratic Party and consistent frontrunner positioning ahead of the June 16 nonpartisan primary.** The East Bay district, vacated by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, favors Democratic candidates in a top-two primary system that advances contenders to an August 18 general if no majority is reached. Early partial vote counts from related balloting showed Wahab with a clear edge at around 34%, reflecting her state Senate experience and unified party support. Melissa Hernandez trails as the next most viable Democratic option at 39.5%, with other candidates including Victor Aguilar Jr., Rakhi Israni Singh, and Republicans like Wendy Huang trading at single-digit levels due to the district's partisan lean and limited crossover appeal. Traders view the crowded field and short timeline as consolidating support behind the endorsed frontrunner, though the upcoming primary remains the immediate catalyst for any shifts.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
거래량
$2,906
종료일
2026.08.18
마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.**Aisha Wahab holds a strong lead in the CA-14 special election market at 85.5% implied probability, driven by her Democratic Party endorsement from the California Democratic Party and consistent frontrunner positioning ahead of the June 16 nonpartisan primary.** The East Bay district, vacated by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, favors Democratic candidates in a top-two primary system that advances contenders to an August 18 general if no majority is reached. Early partial vote counts from related balloting showed Wahab with a clear edge at around 34%, reflecting her state Senate experience and unified party support. Melissa Hernandez trails as the next most viable Democratic option at 39.5%, with other candidates including Victor Aguilar Jr., Rakhi Israni Singh, and Republicans like Wendy Huang trading at single-digit levels due to the district's partisan lean and limited crossover appeal. Traders view the crowded field and short timeline as consolidating support behind the endorsed frontrunner, though the upcoming primary remains the immediate catalyst for any shifts.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
거래량
$2,906
종료일
2026.08.18
마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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자주 묻는 질문

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"은 7개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 89%의 "Aisha Wahab"이며, 이어서 37%의 "Melissa Hernandez"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 89¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 89%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"은 Polymarket에서 새로 생성된 마켓입니다, Apr 16, 2026에 시작됨. 초기 마켓으로서 확률을 설정하고 마켓의 초기 가격 신호를 수립하는 첫 번째 트레이더 중 하나가 될 기회입니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하여 마켓이 성장함에 따라 거래량과 거래 활동을 추적할 수도 있습니다.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 7개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"의 현재 유력 후보는 89%의 "Aisha Wahab"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 89%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 37%의 "Melissa Hernandez"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.