David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by a narrow 0.4-point margin in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, prompting Hong’s concession and removing any immediate path to a recount. Under state statute, the Wisconsin Elections Commission orders recounts only upon timely candidate request within defined vote thresholds; margins between 0.25 and 1 percent shift cost responsibility to the requesting campaign, while Hong’s concession eliminated that option. No official irregularities or legal challenges have surfaced in the two days since results were called, and certification timelines leave little room for new developments before August 31. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to “No” because these procedural barriers and the absence of active petitions create near-certain barriers absent an unforeseen court intervention or surprise filing. Late requests or verified tabulation errors remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/08/31
はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by a narrow 0.4-point margin in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, prompting Hong’s concession and removing any immediate path to a recount. Under state statute, the Wisconsin Elections Commission orders recounts only upon timely candidate request within defined vote thresholds; margins between 0.25 and 1 percent shift cost responsibility to the requesting campaign, while Hong’s concession eliminated that option. No official irregularities or legal challenges have surfaced in the two days since results were called, and certification timelines leave little room for new developments before August 31. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to “No” because these procedural barriers and the absence of active petitions create near-certain barriers absent an unforeseen court intervention or surprise filing. Late requests or verified tabulation errors remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
音量
$1,475終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by a narrow 0.4-point margin in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, prompting Hong’s concession and removing any immediate path to a recount. Under state statute, the Wisconsin Elections Commission orders recounts only upon timely candidate request within defined vote thresholds; margins between 0.25 and 1 percent shift cost responsibility to the requesting campaign, while Hong’s concession eliminated that option. No official irregularities or legal challenges have surfaced in the two days since results were called, and certification timelines leave little room for new developments before August 31. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to “No” because these procedural barriers and the absence of active petitions create near-certain barriers absent an unforeseen court intervention or surprise filing. Late requests or verified tabulation errors remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,475終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...David Crowley defeated Francesca Hong by a narrow 0.4-point margin in Wisconsin’s August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, prompting Hong’s concession and removing any immediate path to a recount. Under state statute, the Wisconsin Elections Commission orders recounts only upon timely candidate request within defined vote thresholds; margins between 0.25 and 1 percent shift cost responsibility to the requesting campaign, while Hong’s concession eliminated that option. No official irregularities or legal challenges have surfaced in the two days since results were called, and certification timelines leave little room for new developments before August 31. Traders assign 95.5 percent probability to “No” because these procedural barriers and the absence of active petitions create near-certain barriers absent an unforeseen court intervention or surprise filing. Late requests or verified tabulation errors remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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