Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat and transition to opposition leader have sharply reduced the near-term risk of arrest by year's end. Hungary's new Tisza government under Péter Magyar has launched parliamentary probes, office raids, and inquiries into alleged Fidesz-linked misuse of National Culture Fund grants and other public contracts, yet these actions have targeted former officials and party structures rather than producing charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Ongoing anti-corruption reviews and asset-recovery efforts continue through summer 2026 without crossing into personal criminal proceedings that would trigger arrest. Traders assign the 90.5% "No" probability because structural barriers—including Orbán's parliamentary immunity claims, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional transition timelines—make detention by December 31 improbable absent sudden new developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
10% 確率
$34,923 Vol.
$34,923 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
10% 確率
$34,923 Vol.
$34,923 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat and transition to opposition leader have sharply reduced the near-term risk of arrest by year's end. Hungary's new Tisza government under Péter Magyar has launched parliamentary probes, office raids, and inquiries into alleged Fidesz-linked misuse of National Culture Fund grants and other public contracts, yet these actions have targeted former officials and party structures rather than producing charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Ongoing anti-corruption reviews and asset-recovery efforts continue through summer 2026 without crossing into personal criminal proceedings that would trigger arrest. Traders assign the 90.5% "No" probability because structural barriers—including Orbán's parliamentary immunity claims, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional transition timelines—make detention by December 31 improbable absent sudden new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
音量
$34,923終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat and transition to opposition leader have sharply reduced the near-term risk of arrest by year's end. Hungary's new Tisza government under Péter Magyar has launched parliamentary probes, office raids, and inquiries into alleged Fidesz-linked misuse of National Culture Fund grants and other public contracts, yet these actions have targeted former officials and party structures rather than producing charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Ongoing anti-corruption reviews and asset-recovery efforts continue through summer 2026 without crossing into personal criminal proceedings that would trigger arrest. Traders assign the 90.5% "No" probability because structural barriers—including Orbán's parliamentary immunity claims, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional transition timelines—make detention by December 31 improbable absent sudden new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$34,923終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat and transition to opposition leader have sharply reduced the near-term risk of arrest by year's end. Hungary's new Tisza government under Péter Magyar has launched parliamentary probes, office raids, and inquiries into alleged Fidesz-linked misuse of National Culture Fund grants and other public contracts, yet these actions have targeted former officials and party structures rather than producing charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Ongoing anti-corruption reviews and asset-recovery efforts continue through summer 2026 without crossing into personal criminal proceedings that would trigger arrest. Traders assign the 90.5% "No" probability because structural barriers—including Orbán's parliamentary immunity claims, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional transition timelines—make detention by December 31 improbable absent sudden new developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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