Traders assign a 94% probability that Leopold Aschenbrenner will not face criminal charges in 2026 because no investigations, complaints, or enforcement signals have emerged since his 2024 departure from OpenAI over a disputed information-sharing issue. Public records, including recent SEC filings for his Situational Awareness hedge fund, explicitly note the absence of criminal convictions or securities-related proceedings in the prior five years. Recent market-moving developments center on the fund’s steep losses on AI-related positions and subsequent liquidation of holdings amid margin pressure, yet these remain purely financial and have not triggered regulatory scrutiny or referrals that typically precede charges. With more than half of 2026 already elapsed and no new catalysts reported, the consensus reflects the low base rate for prosecution in the absence of concrete allegations or active probes.