Tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified through competing influence in post-Assad Syria, with Israel conducting an August 18, 2026, airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block potential Turkish force deployments and Ankara responding with arrest warrants for Israeli officials plus suspended trade and airspace restrictions. Harsh public rhetoric from both leaders has accompanied these moves, alongside Turkish troop activity deeper in Syria without triggering direct Israeli retaliation. Despite the rivalry, US diplomatic pressure—bolstered by President Trump's ties to both governments—has contained escalation, with analysts noting neither side seeks open conflict given the costs, NATO dynamics, and preference for proxy competition or legal-diplomatic channels. This backdrop underpins the 87% trader consensus against a military clash before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
13% 確率
$414,302 Vol.
$414,302 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
13% 確率
$414,302 Vol.
$414,302 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified through competing influence in post-Assad Syria, with Israel conducting an August 18, 2026, airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block potential Turkish force deployments and Ankara responding with arrest warrants for Israeli officials plus suspended trade and airspace restrictions. Harsh public rhetoric from both leaders has accompanied these moves, alongside Turkish troop activity deeper in Syria without triggering direct Israeli retaliation. Despite the rivalry, US diplomatic pressure—bolstered by President Trump's ties to both governments—has contained escalation, with analysts noting neither side seeks open conflict given the costs, NATO dynamics, and preference for proxy competition or legal-diplomatic channels. This backdrop underpins the 87% trader consensus against a military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
音量
$414,302終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified through competing influence in post-Assad Syria, with Israel conducting an August 18, 2026, airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block potential Turkish force deployments and Ankara responding with arrest warrants for Israeli officials plus suspended trade and airspace restrictions. Harsh public rhetoric from both leaders has accompanied these moves, alongside Turkish troop activity deeper in Syria without triggering direct Israeli retaliation. Despite the rivalry, US diplomatic pressure—bolstered by President Trump's ties to both governments—has contained escalation, with analysts noting neither side seeks open conflict given the costs, NATO dynamics, and preference for proxy competition or legal-diplomatic channels. This backdrop underpins the 87% trader consensus against a military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$414,302終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified through competing influence in post-Assad Syria, with Israel conducting an August 18, 2026, airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block potential Turkish force deployments and Ankara responding with arrest warrants for Israeli officials plus suspended trade and airspace restrictions. Harsh public rhetoric from both leaders has accompanied these moves, alongside Turkish troop activity deeper in Syria without triggering direct Israeli retaliation. Despite the rivalry, US diplomatic pressure—bolstered by President Trump's ties to both governments—has contained escalation, with analysts noting neither side seeks open conflict given the costs, NATO dynamics, and preference for proxy competition or legal-diplomatic channels. This backdrop underpins the 87% trader consensus against a military clash before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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