Harvey Weinstein’s market dominance at 100% implied probability for “No Prison Time” reflects trader assessment of his advanced age (73), documented medical fragility, and six-plus years already served amid repeated New York retrials and appeals. The June 2026 decision by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg to forgo further prosecution on the Jessica Mann charges, combined with the producer’s California 16-year sentence running consecutively yet facing resentencing proceedings, has reinforced expectations that any additional incarceration will effectively be nullified by health-related release, time served credits, or plea resolutions. Recent court appearances describe Weinstein as frail and wheelchair-bound at Rikers, aligning with historical patterns where elderly defendants in similar cases receive substantial leniency. An upset scenario would require reversal of the dropped charges, new credible allegations advancing to trial before September sentencing, or successful defense appeals restoring full consecutive terms—developments that remain low-probability given current procedural trajectory and precedent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Harvey Weinstein awaits sentencing after retrials and dismissed charges
As of late July 2026, Weinstein had not yet been sentenced in the New York retrial case, with the market strongly favoring 'No Prison Time' due to the unresolved sentencing and prior mistrials.
Harvey Weinstein Will Not Face Fourth New York Rape Trial; Charge Dismissed
No Prison Time dips to 97%1%
The judge formally dismissed the rape charge after prosecutors declined to proceed with another trial, effectively ending the New York retrial process and solidifying the market's expectation of no additional prison time from this case.
Harvey Weinstein hospitalized with heart failure while awaiting sentencing
No Prison Time rises to 98%1%
Weinstein was hospitalized with heart failure during the period he was awaiting sentencing in New York, which likely contributed to delays and uncertainty about sentencing, reinforcing market expectations of no immediate prison time from the retrial.
Harvey Weinstein Hospitalized for Heart Failure in Prison
Weinstein was hospitalized due to heart failure and pneumonia while serving his sentences, highlighting his deteriorating health but not affecting the legal outcomes or sentencing in New York retrial.
Harvey Weinstein hospitalized for emergency heart surgery amid serious health issues
No Prison Time jumps to 97%5%
Weinstein underwent emergency heart surgery while awaiting sentencing, raising questions about his health and potential impact on trial proceedings and sentencing. This event increased market belief in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to concerns about his ability to serve additional prison time.
Harvey Weinstein hospitalized after heart failure in prison
Yes jumps to 97%11%
Weinstein was hospitalized due to heart failure and pneumonia while incarcerated, highlighting his frail health but not directly affecting the New York retrial sentence market.
Weinstein Hospitalized for Heart Failure While in Prison
Weinstein was hospitalized for heart failure and pneumonia while serving his prison sentence, highlighting his declining health but not affecting the legal outcomes or sentencing directly.
Harvey Weinstein recovering in hospital during retrial due to health issues
No Prison Time surges to 99%19%
By July 1, 2026, reports indicated Weinstein was hospitalized with heart failure during the retrial period, which may have influenced perceptions of his ability to serve long prison terms but did not alter the legal outcomes significantly.
Prosecutors plan to seek 20-year sentence for Weinstein on single conviction
Prosecutors announced plans to request a 20-year sentence for Weinstein based on the one conviction from the retrial, but market prices remained low for long sentences, reflecting skepticism about this outcome.
Prosecutors decide not to seek further retrial in New York rape case against Weinstein
No Prison Time jumps to 96%14%
In late June 2026, prosecutors announced they would not pursue a fourth trial on the rape charges against Weinstein after multiple mistrials and deadlocked juries, effectively ending the New York retrial and reinforcing the market's expectation of no additional prison time from this case.
Harvey Weinstein suffers heart failure at Rikers Island jail
Weinstein experienced heart failure while incarcerated, highlighting his declining health. This event may impact his ability to serve additional sentences but does not directly affect the legal resolution of the New York retrial.
Harvey Weinstein sentenced to 16 more years after Los Angeles conviction
Weinstein was sentenced to 16 years in California for rape and sexual assault, which is consecutive to any New York sentence, reinforcing the market's expectation of significant prison time overall.
California court orders new sentencing hearing for Harvey Weinstein
10-20 years rises to 30%3%
On June 27, 2026, a California court ordered a new sentencing hearing for Weinstein after upholding his rape conviction. This confirmed that while his conviction stands, the exact prison term could be adjusted, affecting market expectations for his total prison time.
Prosecutors recommend 20-year prison term for Weinstein's New York sexual assault conviction
No Prison Time jumps to 92%6%
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office recommended a 20-year prison sentence for Weinstein's conviction involving Miriam Haley, signaling the prosecution's intent to seek a substantial sentence. However, no sentencing occurred during the analysis window, contributing to market uncertainty and a rise in the "No Prison Time" probability as the sentencing was pending.
California appeals court upholds Weinstein’s rape conviction but orders resentencing
No Prison Time surges to 99%18%
A California appeals court upheld Weinstein's 2022 rape and sexual assault conviction but ordered resentencing on June 26, 2026. This maintained his existing 16-year sentence but introduced uncertainty about the final length, impacting market perceptions of his total prison time.
California appeals court upholds Weinstein’s rape conviction but orders resentencing
The California appeals court upheld Weinstein’s 2022 rape conviction but vacated his 16-year sentence, ordering a resentencing. This affects his overall prison time but is separate from the New York retrial outcomes.
California appeals court upholds Weinstein’s rape conviction but orders resentencing
The California conviction was upheld but resentencing was ordered due to procedural issues, maintaining Weinstein's prison time but adding uncertainty about the exact length.
California appeals court upholds Harvey Weinstein’s rape conviction but orders resentencing
No Prison Time rises to 81%3%
A California appeals court upheld Weinstein’s 2022 rape and sexual assault conviction but vacated his 16-year sentence and ordered resentencing because the original sentence relied on an aggravating factor that no longer exists. This confirmed Weinstein’s continued prison time from the California case, independent of the New York retrial outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 97%18%
For the third time, the New York jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge against Weinstein, resulting in a mistrial. This prolonged legal uncertainty contributed to the market's strong shift towards "No Prison Time" outcome for this retrial.
California appeals court upholds Weinstein’s rape conviction but orders resentencing
<5 years rises to 3%1%
On June 26, 2026, the California appeals court upheld Weinstein's 2022 rape and sexual assault conviction but ordered resentencing, confirming a 16-year sentence that contributes to his overall prison time.
California appeals court upholds Weinstein’s rape conviction but orders resentencing
10-20 years surges to 27%16%
A California appeals court upheld Weinstein's 2022 rape and sexual assault conviction but ordered resentencing because the original sentence was based on an aggravating factor that no longer exists. This maintained Weinstein's 16-year sentence but introduced some uncertainty about the exact length, influencing market prices.
Prosecutors drop rape charge; no fourth New York trial for Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 97%17%
Prosecutors decided not to pursue a fourth trial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann after two mistrials, leading to dismissal of the charge. This effectively ended the possibility of additional prison time from New York retrials, pushing market prices strongly toward "No Prison Time."
Prosecutors dismiss rape charge, no fourth trial for Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 78%38%
On June 25, 2026, prosecutors announced they would not pursue a fourth trial on the rape charge, effectively ending the retrial process and solidifying the market's resolution toward no additional prison time from this case.
Manhattan DA decides not to pursue fourth trial for Weinstein rape charge
No Prison Time jumps to 81%6%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth criminal trial for the alleged rape of Jessica Mann, effectively ending the retrial process and solidifying market expectations of no additional prison time from this case.
Manhattan DA announces no fourth trial for Weinstein's rape charge
10-20 years surges to 97%16%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth trial for the alleged rape of Jessica Mann, effectively ending the retrial process and solidifying the market's expectation of prison time based on existing convictions.
New York Rape Charge Against Harvey Weinstein Dropped After Accuser Refuses to Testify
No Prison Time surges to 98%18%
The Manhattan District Attorney dropped the New York rape charge against Weinstein after the accuser said she could not endure testifying again, effectively ending the retrial and confirming no additional prison time from this case. This led to a strong market move toward 'No Prison Time'.
Prosecutors announce no fourth New York rape trial for Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 97%18%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that prosecutors would not pursue a fourth trial for the alleged rape of Jessica Mann, effectively ending the New York retrial process and strongly increasing the market's confidence in "No Prison Time."
Prosecutors announce no further retrial for Jessica Mann rape charge
No Prison Time jumps to 100%7%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan prosecutors decided not to pursue a fourth trial for the Jessica Mann rape charge, effectively ending the retrial process and solidifying the market's resolution to "No Prison Time" for this case.
Prosecutors Won't Seek Fourth New York Rape Trial for Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 98%19%
Prosecutors decided not to pursue a fourth trial on rape charges after two mistrials and a deadlocked jury, leading to dismissal of the charge. This significantly increased market confidence in a "No Prison Time" outcome for the retrial.
Prosecutors Drop Weinstein's Rape Charge in New York
No Prison Time surges to 96%15%
After Jessica Mann declined to testify again, prosecutors dropped the remaining rape charge against Weinstein. This effectively ended the possibility of a fourth trial, significantly increasing the market's confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome for this charge.
Prosecutors drop fourth New York trial for Harvey Weinstein after accuser declines to testify
No Prison Time jumps to 81%6%
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth trial for the alleged rape of Jessica Mann, who was unwilling to testify again. This decision further solidified the market's shift toward "No Prison Time" for the New York retrial.
Harvey Weinstein Prosecutors Won’t Seek Fourth Rape Trial in New York
No Prison Time surges to 97%23%
Prosecutors dropped the rape charge after accuser Jessica Mann declined to proceed with another trial, leading to dismissal of the charge. This significantly increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome for the New York retrial.
Harvey Weinstein Prosecutors Drop Rape Charge After Accuser Declines Fourth Trial
No Prison Time surges to 96%21%
Prosecutors dropped the rape charge after Jessica Mann chose not to proceed with another trial, effectively ending the possibility of additional prison time from this charge and causing the market to strongly favor 'No Prison Time'.
Rape Charge Against Harvey Weinstein Dropped After Accuser Declines Retrial
No Prison Time surges to 97%22%
Prosecutors dropped the rape charge against Weinstein after accuser Jessica Mann chose not to proceed with a fourth trial, leading to dismissal of the charge. This development significantly increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome for the New York retrial charges.
Prosecutors seek 20-year prison term for Weinstein in New York sentencing
Prosecutors announced they would seek a 20-year prison sentence for Weinstein in New York, reflecting the seriousness of his convictions and influencing market expectations for a long prison term.
Manhattan DA drops fourth trial against Weinstein after accuser refuses to testify
No Prison Time jumps to 39%11%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth trial for the alleged rape of Jessica Mann, effectively ending the New York retrial process and solidifying the market's move to "No Prison Time."
Prosecutors seek 20-year sentence for Weinstein’s New York sexual assault conviction
20-30 years drops to 1%7%
Prosecutors recommended a 20-year prison term for Weinstein’s conviction involving sexual assault of Miriam Haley in New York, but sentencing had not occurred by the market resolution date, contributing to market uncertainty and favoring "No Prison Time."
Judge formally dismisses rape charge against Harvey Weinstein
Following the prosecutors' decision, the judge officially dismissed the rape charge, confirming no further trials will occur and solidifying the market's resolution towards no additional prison time from this case.
New York Prosecutors Drop Rape Charge Against Harvey Weinstein After Accuser Declines Fourth Trial
No Prison Time surges to 97%16%
Prosecutors officially dropped the third-degree rape charge after Jessica Mann declined to undergo a fourth trial. This left only the Miriam Haley conviction, with sentencing delayed past the market's deadline.
Prosecutors decide not to pursue further retrial on Jessica Mann rape charge
No Prison Time surges to 99%22%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that prosecutors would not seek another retrial for the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, effectively ending the New York retrial process and solidifying the market's move toward no additional prison time from this case.
Prosecutors Drop Weinstein's New York Rape Charge After Accuser Declines Fourth Trial
No Prison Time jumps to 97%11%
Prosecutors dropped the rape charge after Jessica Mann declined to proceed with another trial, leading to dismissal of the charge and solidifying market belief in "No Prison Time" for this retrial case.
New York prosecutors drop Harvey Weinstein's unresolved rape charge, avoiding fourth trial
No Prison Time jumps to 86%5%
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth trial for the rape charge involving Jessica Mann after the accuser said she could not endure testifying again. This decision removed a significant legal hurdle and increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome for the New York retrial sentencing.
Prosecutors drop rape charges against Harvey Weinstein in New York
No Prison Time dips to 96%3%
After multiple mistrials and deadlocked juries on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, prosecutors decided not to pursue a fourth trial and the judge dismissed the charge, strongly shifting market probability to no prison time from this case.
Prosecutors Decide Not to Seek Fourth New York Rape Trial for Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time dips to 96%2%
Prosecutors announced they would not pursue a fourth trial on the rape charge against Weinstein, leading to dismissal of the charge and effectively ending the New York retrial saga. This significantly increased the market's confidence in "No Prison Time."
Manhattan DA drops fourth New York rape trial against Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 78%38%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth trial for the alleged rape of Jessica Mann, after the accuser said she could not bear to testify again. This effectively ended the New York retrial process without additional prison time from that case, pushing the market strongly towards "No Prison Time" for the New York retrial.
Judge dismisses third-degree rape charges against Harvey Weinstein in New York
No Prison Time surges to 96%15%
Following the decision not to seek another trial, the judge formally dismissed the rape charges, effectively ending the possibility of additional prison time from this case and confirming market consensus.
Weinstein's rape charge dismissed after second mistrial; no fourth trial planned
No Prison Time surges to 98%21%
Following two mistrials on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth trial. This decision led the market to strongly favor the "No Prison Time" outcome for this retrial, as no sentencing occurred for this charge.
Prosecutors drop Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape charge after accuser declines to testify again
No Prison Time surges to 98%18%
After two mistrials and the accuser Jessica Mann's unwillingness to testify again, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth trial on the rape charge. This decision effectively resolved the market in favor of 'No Prison Time' for the New York rape charge, as no sentencing would occur.
Prosecutors drop rape retrial charges against Harvey Weinstein in New York
No Prison Time surges to 97%15%
After two mistrials and a jury deadlock on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, prosecutors decided not to seek a fourth trial and the judge dismissed the third-degree rape charges. This effectively ended the possibility of additional prison time from this charge, pushing market prices toward no prison time.
New York prosecutors drop fourth trial against Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 99%22%
Prosecutors decided not to pursue a fourth trial on the rape charge after the accuser declined to testify again, effectively ending the New York retrial process and confirming no additional prison time from this case.
Prosecutors dismiss rape charge against Harvey Weinstein, no fourth trial to be pursued
No Prison Time surges to 98%16%
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that Weinstein would not face a fourth trial for the Jessica Mann rape charge, effectively ending the retrial process and solidifying the market's shift toward No Prison Time for the New York case.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape charge dropped after accuser declines fourth trial
No Prison Time jumps to 96%7%
Prosecutors dropped the remaining New York rape charge after accuser Jessica Mann said she could no longer endure another trial. This effectively ended the possibility of additional prison time from this case, causing the market to strongly favor "No Prison Time."
Manhattan DA announces no fourth trial for Weinstein rape charge
No Prison Time surges to 75%35%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced Weinstein would not face a fourth trial for the Jessica Mann rape charge, effectively ending that prosecution and increasing market confidence in 'No Prison Time' for that charge.
Prosecutors drop rape charge against Harvey Weinstein in New York
No Prison Time jumps to 92%8%
Prosecutors decided not to pursue a fourth trial on rape charges after previous mistrials and deadlocked juries, leading to dismissal of the charge. This significantly reduced the chance of a long prison sentence, boosting the 'No Prison Time' outcome.
Manhattan DA announces no further retrial for Jessica Mann rape charge
No Prison Time surges to 99%59%
On June 25, 2026, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that no additional retrial would be pursued for the Jessica Mann rape charge, effectively ending the New York retrial process and solidifying the market's resolution to "No Prison Time" for this case.
Harvey Weinstein rape charge dropped after accuser declines fourth trial
No Prison Time surges to 97%20%
Prosecutors dropped the rape charge against Weinstein after accuser Jessica Mann said she could no longer endure another trial. This dismissal led the market to sharply increase the probability of "No Prison Time" for the New York retrial sentence.
Prosecutors dismiss remaining rape charge against Harvey Weinstein, no fourth trial
20-30 years rises to 8%1%
On June 25, 2026, prosecutors announced they would not pursue a fourth trial on the remaining rape charge, effectively ending the retrial series and solidifying the market's move toward a prison sentence based on existing convictions.
Prosecutors drop remaining New York rape charge against Harvey Weinstein
Following the second mistrial and Jessica Mann's decision not to testify again, prosecutors announced they would not pursue a fourth trial. This effectively ended the New York retrial process without additional prison time, confirming market expectations.
Prosecutors dismiss rape charge against Harvey Weinstein, no fourth trial planned
10-20 years drops to 80%6%
On June 25, 2026, prosecutors announced they would not pursue a fourth trial for the rape charge, effectively ending further retrials and focusing on sentencing for existing convictions, which supported market movement towards a significant prison sentence.
Hearing scheduled to decide if Weinstein will face fourth trial after mistrial
No Prison Time surges to 99%19%
Following the May 2026 mistrial, a hearing was set for June 24, 2026, for prosecutors to decide whether to pursue a fourth trial on the rape charge. The uncertainty around further trials kept market expectations for prison time from rising.
Hearing set to decide if Harvey Weinstein will face a fourth trial after mistrial
No Prison Time surges to 99%62%
Following the mistrial due to jury deadlock, a hearing was scheduled to determine whether prosecutors will pursue a fourth trial on the rape charge, maintaining uncertainty about final sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein found guilty of sexual assault in New York retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 86%5%
On June 11, 2025, jurors convicted Weinstein of sexually assaulting a woman in 2006 but acquitted him on a second charge, with a third rape charge unresolved. This partial verdict influenced market expectations about his sentencing, though no final sentence was rendered within the analysis window.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlocks
No Prison Time jumps to 86%5%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This outcome introduced uncertainty about additional prison time from the retrial, affecting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein retrial closing arguments conclude; jury to begin deliberations
No Prison Time rises to 81%2%
Closing arguments concluded with prosecution urging the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, followed by jury deliberations. This event heightened market anticipation of a verdict and influenced price movements.
Judge Sets Sentencing Date for Weinstein After Guilty Verdict
10-20 years rises to 3%3%
Judge Farber announced the sentencing date for the conviction, reinforcing expectations of a prison term and raising the “10‑20 years” price to 3 %.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time jumps to 81%10%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the case unresolved, which increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 87%3%
On June 12, 2026, the jury in Weinstein's rape retrial was deadlocked, leading to a mistrial. The jury could not reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leaving the case unresolved and prompting prosecutors to consider whether to pursue a fourth trial.
Harvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time jumps to 82%7%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This left the New York rape charge unresolved and increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome as no sentencing occurred.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault in New York retrial partial verdict
No Prison Time drops to 27%10%
The jury convicted Weinstein of sexual assault on June 11, 2026, but acquitted him on another charge and had not yet decided on a rape charge. This partial verdict influenced market prices, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the final sentence.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial
5-10 years jumps to 20%8%
Weinstein was found guilty of sexual assault of Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with the jury deadlocked on the rape charge. This partial conviction initially supported some market expectation of prison time but was later overshadowed by the dropped rape charge.
Harvey Weinstein found guilty of sexual assault in New York retrial
No Prison Time surges to 81%18%
The retrial concluded with Weinstein found guilty of sexual assault, but no new sentencing was reported by the cutoff date, leading the market to favor the "No Prison Time" outcome due to the retrial's procedural complexities and prior sentences.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault in New York retrial
Weinstein was found guilty of sexual assault in the retrial, reinforcing expectations of some prison time but with ongoing uncertainty about the length of the sentence, influencing market prices.
Harvey Weinstein Found Guilty of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial
<5 years jumps to 16%13%
After five days of deliberation, the jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but not guilty of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with no verdict yet on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial conviction impacted market prices, increasing uncertainty about the final sentence.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault in partial retrial verdict
Yes rises to 41%3%
A jury convicted Weinstein of a sexual assault charge but acquitted him on another. The jury did not reach a verdict on the rape charge. This partial conviction reinforced expectations of some prison time but left uncertainty about the length, affecting market prices.
Prosecutors recommend 20-year sentence for Weinstein's New York conviction
Prosecutors recommended a 20-year prison term for Weinstein's New York conviction, signaling a strong stance on sentencing that influenced market expectations towards a significant prison term in the 10-20 year range.
Harvey Weinstein found guilty of sexual assault in New York retrial
No Prison Time surges to 79%43%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of assaulting Miriam Haley but not guilty of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with deliberations ongoing for other charges. This partial verdict shifted market prices significantly towards "No Prison Time" due to uncertainty about sentencing length.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Closing Arguments Conclude; Jury to Deliberate
Yes surges to 52%21%
Prosecutors and defense delivered closing arguments in Weinstein's retrial, with prosecutors urging the jury to hold him accountable, setting the stage for jury deliberations and market anticipation of the verdict.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team as New York Retrial Looms
No Prison Time surges to 99%19%
Weinstein changed his legal team shortly before the retrial, signaling possible shifts in defense strategy and affecting market confidence in his sentencing outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's retrial jury deliberations begin in New York
Yes drops to 28%10%
Jury deliberations started in Weinstein's New York retrial, focusing on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, influencing market expectations as the trial neared conclusion.
Weinstein’s New York jury begins deliberations on single‑count retrial
No Prison Time rises to 82%2%
Jury began deliberations for the single‑count retrial. The market stayed heavily weighted toward “No Prison Time” as the outcome was still pending.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Ends in Mistrial Due to Deadlocked Jury
No Prison Time rises to 80%3%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading to a mistrial declaration, which increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to unresolved sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein hires new legal team for upcoming New York retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 40%10%
Weinstein replaced his legal team with high-profile attorneys ahead of his New York retrial, signaling a strategic shift in defense that affected market perceptions of his chances and potential sentencing outcomes.
Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 83%20%
After three days of deliberation the jury reported a deadlock, resulting in a mistrial. The market instantly moved to “No Prison Time” as the first sentencing was now unlikely.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations in rape retrial
Yes rises to 80%2%
Weinstein experienced chest pains during jury deliberations, leading to court delays and highlighting his deteriorating health, which factored into market expectations of no new prison time from this case.
Sentencing finalized: Weinstein receives 23‑year prison term in New York
20-30 years plunges to 7%72%
With the sentencing now officially announced as a 23‑year term, the market’s “No Prison Time” price fell to its lowest point for the window, cementing the outcome.
Harvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time jumps to 79%9%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' option for this case, as the charge remains unresolved.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%70%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial declaration and increasing the likelihood of no additional prison time from this case.
Judge sets July sentencing date for Weinstein retrial
20-30 years dips to 7%2%
Judge Farber announced a tentative sentencing date for late July, prompting the market to finally accept a high probability of prison; No Prison Time slid to 82 % from 93 % as the 20‑30‑year price steadied at 7 %.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time surges to 84%54%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome strongly increased the market's confidence in "No Prison Time" as the retrial did not conclude with a prison sentence.
District Attorney considers next steps after Weinstein mistrial
No Prison Time dips to 3%1%
Following the mistrial, the Manhattan DA announced plans to consult the accuser about a possible new trial but also to consider Weinstein's existing prison sentences, maintaining uncertainty about further prison time from this case.
Manhattan District Attorney to consult accuser on next steps after Weinstein mistrial
Following the mistrial, the DA's office announced it would consult Jessica Mann before deciding on a potential fourth trial, maintaining uncertainty but reinforcing market expectations of no immediate prison sentence.
Third Weinstein New York retrial ends in jury deadlock and mistrial
No Prison Time jumps to 82%7%
The third trial on the rape charge again ended without a verdict due to jury deadlock, further reducing the likelihood of a prison sentence from this case and increasing market confidence in 'No Prison Time'.
Surprise witness claims Weinstein threatened victim in 2006
20-30 years rises to 9%2%
A surprise witness testified that Weinstein had threatened a victim, reviving fears of a long sentence; the 20‑30‑year price lifted to 9 % and No Prison Time fell back to 72 %.
Weinstein convicted and sentenced to 23‑year term in New York
20-30 years plunges to 8%76%
A jury verdict was announced, convicting Weinstein of a sexual‑act charge and sentencing him to 23 years (concurrent with his California term). This triggered the market to flip to “20‑30 years”.
Harvey Weinstein’s defense urges acquittal as rape retrial nears closing arguments
No Prison Time plunges to 40%31%
Weinstein's defense team urged jurors to acquit him, emphasizing inconsistencies in the prosecution's case and the complex relationship with the accuser, causing temporary market uncertainty and a dip in the no-prison-time probability.
Prosecutors urge jury to let Weinstein know the law applies to him
No Prison Time surges to 87%59%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments, emphasizing the seriousness of the charge, which triggered a sharp rise in the “No Prison Time” price as the market reacted to the impending verdict uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pain during jury deliberations
No Prison Time surges to 82%42%
During jury deliberations in May 2026, Weinstein reported chest pains and was taken to Bellevue Hospital, raising concerns about his health and potentially impacting trial proceedings and sentencing, which increased market confidence in no additional prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial ends in mistrial
No Prison Time surges to 97%47%
After a jury deadlocked on the Jessica Mann rape charge, the trial ended in a mistrial, removing any possibility of a prison sentence from this specific case.
Judge Farber postpones verdict in Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time drops to 84%9%
Following the closing arguments, Judge Farber announced a delayed verdict, keeping the outcome uncertain and causing a brief drop in the “No Prison Time” price before the market rebounded later in May.
Weinstein's Lawyer Considers Plea Deal to Avoid Fourth Trial
Following the mistrial, Weinstein's defense indicated openness to a plea deal that could run concurrently with existing sentences, suggesting limited additional prison time from New York retrials, which influenced market prices toward no new prison time.
Third New York rape trial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time drops to 4%8%
On May 15, 2026, a mistrial was declared in Weinstein's third New York trial after the jury remained deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, prolonging the legal uncertainty and delaying sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's Third Sex Crimes Trial Ends in Another Mistrial Due to Hung Jury
No Prison Time surges to 81%51%
The trial ended with a hung jury on the third day of deliberations, marking the second time in a year that a jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge, heavily boosting 'No Prison Time' odds.
Jurors reveal reasons for deadlock in Harvey Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 82%5%
Jurors shared that the jury was split 9-3 in favor of not guilty, with some jurors expressing reasonable doubt about the prosecution's case, explaining the mistrial and reinforcing market expectations of no prison time from this retrial.
Jury deadlocks again on Weinstein rape charge, mistrial declared
No Prison Time surges to 77%48%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This was the second mistrial on this charge, significantly increasing market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome for this retrial.
Third New York trial for Weinstein ends in mistrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time drops to 28%12%
On May 15, 2026, the third trial concerning the rape charge ended in a mistrial after the jury was deadlocked. This prolonged the legal process and maintained uncertainty about any new prison sentence from this retrial.
Mistrial declared in third New York rape trial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 25%17%
On May 15, 2026, a Manhattan judge declared a mistrial after the jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, with nine jurors favoring acquittal. This prolonged the uncertainty about Weinstein's New York sentencing and affected market confidence in a prison sentence from this case.
Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial Ends in Another Mistrial After Jury Deadlocks
No Prison Time surges to 76%44%
The third-degree rape retrial ended in a hung jury, marking the second time a jury was unable to reach a verdict on the charge involving Jessica Mann.
Prosecutors deliver closing arguments urging jury to convict Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 89%19%
Prosecutors emphasized the power dynamics and strength of accusers, urging the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, which temporarily affected market prices but did not decisively shift outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial ends in mistrial
No Prison Time drops to 27%11%
On May 15, 2026, the jury deadlocked on the rape charge, leading to a mistrial and maintaining uncertainty about additional prison time from this charge, which affected market prices significantly.
Mistrial declared in Weinstein's third New York rape retrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 99%20%
The jury in Weinstein's third New York rape retrial failed to reach a unanimous verdict, leading to a mistrial declaration. This event further prolonged the case and maintained market expectations that no additional prison time would be imposed from this retrial.
Judge declares mistrial in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time dips to 9%1%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome left the case unresolved and no new prison sentence imposed, impacting market pricing toward no additional prison time.
Mistrial declared in Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial
No Prison Time dips to 5%4%
A jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count and increasing market uncertainty about a New York prison sentence, boosting the probability of "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein New York rape retrial ends in mistrial
No Prison Time jumps to 32%9%
The retrial for the rape charge involving Jessica Mann ended in a mistrial due to a deadlocked jury, creating uncertainty about the final outcome and causing market volatility.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 78%41%
On May 15, 2026, the jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial and increasing market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' outcome as no sentencing occurred.
Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial
No Prison Time jumps to 31%9%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This was the second time a jury failed to reach a verdict on this charge, prolonging the legal process and maintaining uncertainty about Weinstein's additional prison time.
Weinstein's Third-Degree Rape Trial Ends in Mistrial Due to Jury Deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 8%1%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial and prolonging uncertainty about Weinstein's sentencing from the retrial, impacting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlocks
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This unresolved charge maintained uncertainty about Weinstein's total prison sentence, reinforcing market sentiment toward "No Prison Time."
Judge declares mistrial in Weinstein's rape retrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 82%47%
The judge declared a mistrial on the rape charge after the jury was deadlocked, increasing uncertainty about further prison time and affecting market prices.
Third New York trial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 78%75%
On May 15, 2026, the third New York trial ended in a mistrial due to a deadlocked jury on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, increasing uncertainty and pushing market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein Faces Third New York Retrial on Rape Charge
Yes jumps to 35%5%
A new retrial was set for April 2026 focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the scope of the case and affecting market expectations about sentencing severity.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution delivers closing arguments
No Prison Time surges to 79%39%
Prosecutors summarized accusers' testimonies and urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the case against him and affecting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial ends in mistrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial and increasing uncertainty about the final prison sentence from this case.
Harvey Weinstein Third New York Rape Trial Ends in Mistrial Due to Deadlocked Jury
No Prison Time rises to 10%3%
The third trial on the rape charge ended in a mistrial after the jury could not reach a unanimous verdict, prolonging uncertainty and impacting market prices by lowering the likelihood of a prison sentence from this charge.
Harvey Weinstein retrial closing arguments conclude with prosecution urging conviction
No Prison Time drops to 40%6%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the accusers' strength and the need to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the possibility of prison time but also highlighting the contested nature of the case.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution urges jury to 'let him know the rules apply to him'
Yes plunges to 28%20%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing accountability, reinforcing the seriousness of charges and affecting market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act, acquitted on another
No Prison Time surges to 75%42%
The jury convicted Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on a charge involving Kaja Sokola. The jury was deadlocked on a third count involving Jessica Mann, leading to continued deliberations. This partial verdict caused significant market movement.
Prosecutors Deliver Closing Arguments in Weinstein Retrial
Yes jumps to 35%5%
Prosecutors urged the jury to convict Weinstein, emphasizing the accusers' strength and truthfulness. This event was critical as it marked the final arguments before jury deliberations, impacting market pricing.
Harvey Weinstein Rape Charge Dropped as Accuser Declines Another Retrial
No Prison Time surges to 76%44%
Prosecutors dropped the rape charge after accuser Jessica Mann chose not to proceed with a fourth trial, significantly reducing the likelihood of additional prison time from this case and causing the market to strongly favor no prison time.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations
No Prison Time rises to 81%4%
During jury deliberations in May 2026, Weinstein reported chest pains, causing the court to end the day early. He returned to court the next day, and jurors resumed deliberations. This health scare highlighted Weinstein's deteriorating condition but did not directly affect the legal proceedings' outcome.
Prosecutors urge jury to convict Harvey Weinstein in New York sex crimes retrial
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and urging conviction, intensifying the trial's climax and impacting market expectations on prison time.
Prosecutors Urge Jury to Hold Weinstein Accountable in Closing Arguments
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing that Weinstein thought rules did not apply to him and urged the jury to convict, but the mixed trial history kept market uncertainty high.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Prosecutors Urge Jury to 'Let Him Know the Rules Apply to Him'
No Prison Time rises to 80%3%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the accusers' strength and urging conviction, countering the defense's narrative. This heightened the trial's profile and market volatility.
Harvey Weinstein's Third Trial Ends in Mistrial Due to Deadlocked Jury
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This prolonged the legal uncertainty and affected market confidence in a conviction with prison time for this charge.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but acquitted on another in New York retrial
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with no verdict on the Jessica Mann rape charge, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 71%42%
The retrial for the rape charge ended in a mistrial after the jury was deadlocked, leaving the charge unresolved and reinforcing market expectations of no additional prison time from this case.
Harvey Weinstein Rape Retrial Begins in New York with Jury Selection
Yes rises to 34%2%
Jury selection began for Weinstein's third New York retrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. The retrial was a continuation of the unresolved legal proceedings, maintaining market uncertainty about the final prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein retrial jury deadlocks, mistrial declared on rape charge
No Prison Time surges to 75%44%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial, which increased the market's confidence in "No Prison Time" outcome due to unresolved sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein Reports Chest Pains, Halting First Day of Jury Deliberations
No Prison Time surges to 86%63%
Weinstein experienced chest pains during the first day of jury deliberations, prompting the judge to dismiss the jury early for the day.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution urges jury to 'let him know the rules apply to him'
No Prison Time jumps to 39%5%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and the strength of accusers, aiming to secure a conviction. This event created tension in the market but did not decisively shift probabilities away from "No Prison Time."
Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations
Yes dips to 28%4%
Weinstein experienced chest pains during jury deliberations, causing the court to end the day early. This event highlighted his deteriorating health and added uncertainty to the trial's progress, impacting market confidence.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pain as jury deliberates in rape retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 42%9%
During jury deliberations in Weinstein's 2026 New York rape retrial, Weinstein experienced chest pains, causing the court to end the day early. This highlighted his deteriorating health amid ongoing trial proceedings, contributing to market uncertainty.
Jury begins deliberations in Weinstein's rape retrial
No Prison Time rises to 41%4%
On May 13, 2026, jurors started deliberating in Weinstein's retrial for the 2013 rape charge involving Jessica Mann, after nearly three weeks of testimony. This was a critical phase in the trial, influencing market expectations about the outcome.
Prosecutors Deliver Closing Arguments Urging Conviction of Weinstein
No Prison Time drops to 28%9%
Prosecutors summarized accusers' testimonies and urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, impacting market expectations of prison time but with uncertainty remaining.
Jury Deliberations Begin in Harvey Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 35%7%
After nearly three weeks of testimony, the jury began deliberating on the single count of third-degree rape, causing market volatility as a verdict neared.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Jury Declared Mistrial After Deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%72%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and significantly increasing market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to uncertainty about further sentencing.
Jury Begins Deliberations in Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial
Jury deliberations started for Weinstein's 2026 retrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. The trial was closely watched as a key part of the #MeToo movement's legal battles, with the outcome uncertain and impacting market prices.
Weinstein Reports Chest Pains During Jury Deliberations
No Prison Time jumps to 86%11%
Weinstein experienced chest pains while in the courthouse holding area, causing the judge to dismiss the deliberating jury early for the day.
Jury Deliberations Begin in Weinstein’s Third New York Rape Retrial
No Prison Time surges to 75%43%
Jury deliberations started on May 13, 2026, focusing on the unresolved rape charge. The prolonged trial and jury deadlock contributed to market uncertainty, with increased probability for "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein's third New York sex crimes trial ends in mistrial due to hung jury
No Prison Time surges to 78%37%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and increasing market confidence in no additional prison time from this retrial.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pain as jury deliberates in his rape retrial
During jury deliberations in Weinstein's rape retrial, he experienced chest pains, causing an early end to the court day. This highlighted his deteriorating health but did not directly affect the trial outcome.
Prosecutors Urge Jury to Hold Weinstein Accountable in Closing Arguments
5-10 years jumps to 10%6%
The prosecution delivered closing arguments urging the jury to convict Weinstein, highlighting the accusers' strength and impacting market expectations on sentencing.
Weinstein's New York retrial ends in second mistrial on rape charge
No Prison Time plunges to 6%22%
The jury again deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a second mistrial and increasing market expectations that no prison time would result from this retrial.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Prosecutors Urge Jury to 'Let Him Know the Rules Apply to Him'
20-30 years jumps to 32%7%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the accusers' strength and urging conviction, impacting market expectations by reinforcing the possibility of prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial jury deadlocks, leading to mistrial
No Prison Time surges to 75%43%
After several days of deliberation, the jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the case unresolved, which increased market confidence in 'No Prison Time' outcome from this retrial.
Jury deliberations begin in Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial
Yes dips to 7%1%
After a monthlong trial with nearly 20 witnesses, the jury began deliberations on the rape charge, raising market anticipation for a verdict and potential sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%38%
The jury in Weinstein's New York rape retrial failed to reach a unanimous verdict, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This was the third trial on the charge, with previous convictions overturned and a prior deadlock. The prosecution considered next steps, but no sentencing occurred.
Jury Deliberations Begin in Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial
Yes rises to 33%1%
Jury deliberations started in May 2026 on the unresolved rape charge from 2013 involving Jessica Mann. This event renewed market focus on the possibility of a prison sentence but also reflected ongoing uncertainty as the jury weighed evidence.
Harvey Weinstein's Defense Urges Acquittal as Rape Retrial Nears Closing Arguments
No Prison Time surges to 79%48%
Weinstein's defense team strongly pushed for an acquittal, arguing that inconsistencies in the prosecution's timeline failed to meet the standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt.
Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as retrial comes to close
No Prison Time surges to 80%47%
Defense urged acquittal during closing arguments, suggesting a possible no‑sentence outcome; the market briefly surged toward “No Prison Time”.
Harvey Weinstein Defense Seeks Acquittal as Rape Retrial Comes to Close
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the retrial for the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, highlighting the defense's strategy and the ongoing uncertainty about the outcome of this charge, which affected market confidence in a lengthy prison sentence.
Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial closes
No Prison Time plunges to 7%22%
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the rape retrial involving Jessica Mann, emphasizing inconsistencies and consensual encounters. This defense push contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in longer prison time probabilities.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal in closing arguments
No Prison Time jumps to 93%11%
Weinstein’s defense made a sweeping acquittal appeal during closing arguments, shaking confidence in a prison outcome; No Prison Time surged to 93 % from 82 % the previous day.
Weinstein Defense Urges Acquittal as Rape Retrial Nears Close
No Prison Time surges to 75%42%
Defense attorney Marc Agnifilo delivered closing arguments urging the jury to acquit Weinstein, arguing the narrative was false and encounters were consensual.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears closing
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the retrial focusing on the Jessica Mann rape charge, highlighting the ongoing contest over the case's outcome and influencing market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the ongoing retrial, emphasizing the complexity and length of the case, which influenced market uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
Yes drops to 26%10%
Closing arguments began with Weinstein's defense urging acquittal, emphasizing the complexity of the relationship with the accuser. This led to increased market uncertainty and a temporary dip in the no-prison-time probability.
Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion
Defense closing arguments emphasized the lack of proof for non-consensual sex, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein hospitalized for emergency heart surgery amid serious health issues
No Prison Time surges to 82%50%
Weinstein underwent emergency heart surgery while awaiting retrial, raising questions about his health and potential impact on trial proceedings and sentencing, contributing to increased market belief in "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein Defense Seeks Acquittal as Rape Retrial Comes to Close
No Prison Time jumps to 31%5%
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the third retrial, emphasizing the complexity and contested nature of the case, which affected market sentiment toward lower prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Closing Arguments Delivered
Yes jumps to 40%12%
Prosecutors and defense delivered closing arguments in Weinstein's retrial, with the prosecution urging the jury to hold Weinstein accountable and the defense claiming the accusers were motivated by money and fame. This event preceded jury deliberations and influenced market expectations.
Harvey Weinstein New York Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Rape Charge
No Prison Time dips to 6%2%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This prolonged uncertainty about sentencing and affected market prices by lowering confidence in a lengthy prison term.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Trial Ends in Mistrial on Rape Charge
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This outcome increased uncertainty and influenced market prices toward "No Prison Time" due to the unresolved charge.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
No Prison Time jumps to 46%6%
Weinstein's defense made closing arguments urging acquittal, emphasizing consent and challenging accusers' credibility. This influenced market sentiment by raising the possibility of no prison time or a lighter sentence.
New York Jury Deadlocks on Weinstein Rape Charge, Mistrial Declared
No Prison Time drops to 21%11%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This prolonged the legal process and added uncertainty to Weinstein's final prison sentence in New York.
Harvey Weinstein's Third Trial Ends in Mistrial on Rape Charge
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial and increasing uncertainty about prison time related to that charge.
Mistrial declared in Harvey Weinstein New York rape retrial involving Jessica Mann
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury was deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge related to Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This prolonged the uncertainty about Weinstein's prison time from the New York retrial and affected market prices.
Harvey Weinstein New York Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Rape Charge
No Prison Time rises to 10%3%
The third trial over the rape charge ended in a mistrial due to a deadlocked jury, increasing uncertainty about Weinstein's sentencing and impacting market prices by lowering the likelihood of a long prison sentence from this charge.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault of Miriam Haley in New York retrial
10-20 years jumps to 27%11%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This conviction raised expectations of prison time but uncertainty remained about length.
Harvey Weinstein Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial Due to Deadlocked Jury
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
The third trial over rape charges involving Jessica Mann ended in a mistrial after the jury was deadlocked, reducing the likelihood of a conviction and prison time from this charge.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Trial Ends in Mistrial on Rape Charge
No Prison Time rises to 9%3%
The jury was deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This uncertainty caused market volatility and lowered confidence in a lengthy prison sentence from this charge.
Harvey Weinstein sentenced to 23 years in prison for sex crimes
20-30 years dips to 6%1%
In early May 2026, Weinstein was sentenced to 23 years in prison for sexual assault convictions in New York. This sentencing confirmed a substantial prison term, causing a significant market shift away from longer sentences toward the confirmed 20-30 years range and reducing the probability of no prison time.
Prosecutors Urge Jury to Hold Weinstein Accountable in Retrial Closing Arguments
Yes rises to 39%4%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the power dynamics and urging the jury to convict Weinstein, while defense argued accusers were motivated by money and fame, intensifying market speculation on sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's New York sex crimes retrial closing arguments conclude
Yes drops to 27%14%
Prosecutors urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, while defense claimed the accusers lied, setting the stage for jury deliberations and influencing market uncertainty.
Weinstein convicted on lesser charge, no prison sentence imposed for remaining rape count
No Prison Time surges to 81%39%
The trial concluded with a guilty verdict on one count (forcing oral sex) and acquittal on another, but no prison time was imposed for the remaining charge, solidifying the “No Prison Time” outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Opens with Opening Statements
10-20 years drops to 13%13%
The third Manhattan sex-crimes trial officially opened, focusing on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape trial opens with opening statements
The third trial, focused solely on the single charge of third-degree rape involving Jessica Mann, officially opened in Manhattan.
Opening Statements Begin in Harvey Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 41%8%
Prosecutors and defense attorneys delivered opening statements in the retrial, framing the case around power and consent respectively.
Defense attacks credibility of rape accuser in Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial
<5 years plunges to 11%36%
The defense's strategy to challenge the accuser's credibility during opening statements introduced doubt about the prosecution's case, causing market price fluctuations and uncertainty about the final prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial opens third time with opening statements
The retrial opened again with prosecutors emphasizing power and control, and defense focusing on consent and regret. This event renewed focus on the case and affected market probabilities for prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial opens with opening statements
No Prison Time jumps to 40%12%
Opening statements in Weinstein's New York retrial emphasized power dynamics and consent, setting the tone for the trial and causing market fluctuations.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial opens in New York with prosecutors portraying him as a predator
<5 years surges to 47%41%
Opening statements in Weinstein's third New York rape retrial emphasized his alleged abuse of power, reinforcing the prosecution's case and increasing market expectations of a prison sentence under 5 years. This contributed to price volatility around this date.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens in New York for the third time
Opening statements began in the retrial, with prosecutors emphasizing power and control, and defense focusing on consent and regret. This event shaped market perceptions of the trial's direction and potential outcomes.
Weinstein’s rape retrial opens in New York, third time on the stand
5-10 years rises to 5%3%
The retrial officially opened with opening statements, reaffirming the seriousness of the single rape charge and shifting some sentiment toward a prison term, lifting “5‑10 years” briefly.
Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial opens with opening statements
Opening statements in the third retrial emphasized power and consent issues, with prosecutors and defense presenting contrasting narratives, impacting market sentiment on conviction and sentencing likelihood.
Harvey Weinstein’s Rape Retrial Opens in New York
No Prison Time jumps to 34%9%
Opening statements began in Weinstein's third rape retrial, with prosecutors emphasizing power and control, and defense focusing on consent. This event marked a critical phase in the trial, influencing market expectations.
Opening statements begin in Weinstein's New York rape retrial
Yes rises to 7%2%
Opening statements were delivered in the retrial, with prosecutors emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and defense arguing consent. This set the tone for the trial and influenced market sentiment about the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens for third time
10-20 years surges to 69%24%
A third opening of the retrial was reported, focusing on a single rape charge. The renewed focus on a single count increased market expectations of a possible prison sentence, pulling the price of “No Prison Time” down.
Judge Farber resumes Weinstein retrial, stresses gravity of rape charge
20-30 years drops to 7%12%
The trial reopened after a brief recess, and the judge emphasized the seriousness of the charge, causing the market to swing back toward prison expectations; No Prison Time dropped to 40 % from 51 %.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial begins with opening statements
Yes jumps to 36%8%
The retrial officially commenced with opening statements from prosecution and defense, highlighting the power dynamics and consent issues central to the case, which influenced market sentiment on potential sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein to face third New York retrial on rape charge
A new retrial was scheduled focusing on a single charge involving Jessica Mann, renewing market attention and speculation on the potential sentence outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial begins in New York
No Prison Time jumps to 41%14%
The retrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann began on April 14, 2026, focusing solely on this charge after previous mistrials. Jury selection was completed, and opening statements emphasized the power dynamics and consent issues. This event marked the start of the final phase of the retrial process, influencing market expectations about the outcome.
Weinstein's New York rape retrial jury selection begins
No Prison Time surges to 28%22%
Jury selection started for Weinstein's latest New York retrial focusing on a single rape charge, narrowing the case and influencing market expectations toward a possible no prison time outcome.
Harvey Weinstein Faces New York Retrial on Rape Charge
Yes rises to 8%1%
The retrial began with opening statements focusing on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This event renewed market attention on the potential prison sentence outcomes.
Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge involving Jessica Mann
No Prison Time plunges to 21%15%
Jury selection began for Weinstein's retrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, renewing market uncertainty about his potential sentence. The retrial focused on a single charge, simplifying the case but prolonging resolution.
Harvey Weinstein retrial begins on rape charge in New York
Jury selection started for Weinstein's latest retrial on a third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This retrial focused on a single charge and accuser, streamlining the case. Weinstein denied all accusations and maintained the encounters were consensual.
Weinstein’s retrial to focus on single rape charge, says ABC
ABC announced that the retrial would focus on a single rape charge, raising expectations of a more streamlined case and moving the market toward “5‑10 years”.
Harvey Weinstein Faces Retrial on New York Rape Charge with New Legal Team
Jury selection began for Weinstein's latest retrial on a rape charge, with a new legal team representing him, renewing market focus on the potential prison sentence outcome.
Harvey Weinstein faces new retrial on New York rape charge
Yes surges to 28%21%
A new retrial began focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and renewing market speculation on the outcome.
Weinstein hires new lawyer Marc Agnifilo ahead of retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 84%6%
A new defence team led by Marc Agnifilo was announced ahead of the upcoming retrial, contributing to a sharp jump in “No Prison Time” as market participants expected a tougher defence.
Jury Selection Begins in Harvey Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial
No Prison Time surges to 78%40%
Jury selection commenced for the retrial of the single third-degree rape charge, which carries a maximum prison sentence of four years.
Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge
20-30 years rises to 12%4%
ABC reported that a new retrial on the lone rape charge would begin, re‑opening the possibility of a substantial sentence and driving the market away from “No Prison Time”.
Harvey Weinstein to Face Retrial on New York Rape Charge
Weinstein faced a new retrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, with jury selection beginning. This retrial focused on a single charge, reflecting a narrowed prosecution strategy and affecting market expectations for sentencing outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with jury selection
Jury selection started for Weinstein's retrial focusing on the rape charge by Jessica Mann. This marked the start of the final retrial phase, impacting market prices as the trial outcome remained uncertain.
Jury Selection Begins in Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial
10-20 years rises to 24%4%
Jury selection commenced for the retrial of the 2013 rape charge involving Jessica Mann, focusing the market on the potential for a new sentence.
Harvey Weinstein Faces New York Retrial on Single Rape Charge
No Prison Time drops to 7%11%
Jury selection began for a new retrial focusing on a single rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the scope and affecting market sentiment toward a possible no prison time outcome.
Harvey Weinstein Rape Retrial Scheduled to Begin in New York
<5 years drops to 4%8%
Jury selection was set to begin for Weinstein's third-degree rape retrial involving Jessica Mann, focusing on a single charge.
Harvey Weinstein Faces Retrial on New York Rape Charge with New Legal Team
No Prison Time surges to 79%48%
Jury selection began for Weinstein's third New York rape retrial, with a new legal team and a narrowed charge focusing on one accuser, increasing uncertainty and impacting market prices toward no prison time.
Harvey Weinstein retrial jury selection begins in New York rape case
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
Jury selection started for Weinstein's retrial on a 2013 rape charge involving Jessica Mann, focusing on a single charge rather than multiple allegations. This event marked the trial's restart and influenced market prices by renewing uncertainty about the outcome.
Harvey Weinstein Faces Third New York Retrial on Rape Charge
Yes surges to 30%24%
Jury selection began for Weinstein's third New York retrial focusing on a single rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This narrowed focus influenced market sentiment toward a lower likelihood of lengthy prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's Third Rape Retrial Scheduled for April
No Prison Time jumps to 40%12%
The court scheduled a third trial specifically to address the outstanding third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann that previously ended in a mistrial.
Jury Selection Begins in New York for Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial
Jury selection commenced for the retrial of the 2013 third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, signaling the start of the legal proceedings that would decide his sentence.
Harvey Weinstein Faces Third New York Retrial on Rape Charge
No Prison Time surges to 26%19%
Jury selection began for Weinstein's third New York retrial focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and impacting market expectations for sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein Rape Retrial Scheduled to Begin in New York
20-30 years jumps to 33%8%
The court scheduled the retrial for the outstanding third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann to begin with jury selection, keeping the final sentencing outcome uncertain.
Harvey Weinstein retrial begins in New York on rape charge
Yes dips to 5%2%
The retrial started on April 14, 2026, focusing on a third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This followed the overturning of Weinstein's 2020 conviction due to procedural errors. The retrial was highly anticipated and marked a significant event influencing market expectations.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial begins jury selection
No Prison Time drops to 29%8%
Jury selection for Weinstein's third New York rape retrial began on April 14, 2026, marking the start of a new trial after previous convictions were overturned. This event marked renewed legal proceedings and market attention.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial begins
Yes surges to 33%27%
The third retrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann commenced with a new legal team and limited charges, focusing solely on the single accusation. This event renewed market attention on the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.
Jury Selection Begins for Harvey Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial
No Prison Time surges to 53%23%
Jury selection commenced in Manhattan for Weinstein's third New York trial, focusing solely on a single third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge
Jury selection began for Weinstein's retrial focusing on a single rape charge from 2013, streamlining the case compared to previous trials. This development renewed market focus on the likelihood of prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial Scheduled to Begin with Jury Selection
20-30 years jumps to 33%9%
Jury selection was set to begin for Weinstein's latest retrial on the single outstanding third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial begins focusing on Jessica Mann allegations
No Prison Time jumps to 37%6%
The third retrial started in April 2026, focusing on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This event renewed market attention and speculation about the potential prison sentence from this case.
Jury selection begins for Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial
The start of jury selection for Weinstein's third trial heightened market focus on the potential prison sentence outcome. This procedural milestone increased the immediacy of the trial's resolution, impacting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein retrial begins for rape charge in New York
No Prison Time surges to 27%20%
The third New York retrial began on April 14, 2026, focusing on allegations by Jessica Mann, renewing market speculation about potential prison time outcomes.
Judge Sets April 14 Start Date for Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial
No Prison Time surges to 43%35%
New York Supreme Court Judge Curtis Farber scheduled the jury selection for Weinstein's latest retrial on the Jessica Mann rape allegations to begin on April 14.
Prosecutors unveil recorded phone call linking Weinstein to assault
20-30 years drops to 19%12%
Prosecutors presented a damning recorded phone call, raising expectations of a harsher sentence; the 20‑30‑year price climbed to 19 % while No Prison Time fell sharply to 51 % (peak).
Harvey Weinstein's third NYC trial on Jessica Mann rape allegations scheduled for April 14
Court scheduling confirmed the start of Weinstein's third trial on April 14, 2026, reinforcing market expectations of a prison sentence possibility. The trial's focus on a third-degree rape charge carrying up to four years influenced market pricing.
Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial Scheduled for April 14
No Prison Time plunges to 25%21%
A New York judge scheduled the retrial on the outstanding third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann to begin on April 14, 2026.
Harvey Weinstein's New York Rape Retrial Scheduled for April 14
<5 years plunges to 10%31%
Following the previous jury deadlock on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, a New York judge scheduled the next retrial to begin on April 14, 2026.
Harvey Weinstein's Rape Case Retrial Scheduled for April 14
No Prison Time drops to 27%5%
The court scheduled the retrial on the unresolved third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann for April 14, 2026, with Weinstein hiring a new high-profile legal team.
Harvey Weinstein's retrial closing arguments conclude in New York
Prosecutors urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, while defense claimed accusers were motivated by money and fame. This marked the final phase before jury deliberations, impacting market prices.
Closing arguments conclude in Weinstein's New York sex crimes retrial
Yes dips to 27%1%
Prosecutors urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, emphasizing the power dynamics and strength of accusers, while defense argued consent and questioned accusers' motives. This event marked the final phase before jury deliberations, influencing market expectations on sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team with Sean 'Diddy' Combs' Lawyers Ahead of Third Trial
No Prison Time drops to 5%8%
Weinstein hired a new legal team, including Marc Agnifilo, to represent him in his upcoming third New York trial after declining to end the matter with a guilty plea.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York Retrial Opens for Third Time with New Legal Team
In early 2026, Weinstein's third New York retrial began focusing on a single rape charge with a new defense team, signaling a prolonged legal battle and affecting market confidence in a lengthy prison sentence.
Weinstein defense moves to block pivotal victim testimony
No Prison Time jumps to 31%8%
Defense filed a motion to suppress key victim testimony, seen as a strategy to limit incriminating evidence; the market responded with a jump in No Prison Time to 31 % from 23 %.
Harvey Weinstein's 2020 New York Conviction Overturned by Appeals Court
The New York Court of Appeals overturned Weinstein's 2020 conviction due to improper testimony, leading to the retrial and impacting market expectations about his prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's Retrial Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge, Leading to Mistrial
No Prison Time surges to 68%38%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial on that count and increasing the probability of no additional prison time from that charge.
Judge limits evidence on Weinstein’s past relationships in retrial
No Prison Time surges to 47%41%
A judge ruled that certain evidence about Weinstein’s prior relationships would be excluded, lowering the likelihood of a severe sentence and pushing the market back toward “No Prison Time”.
Weinstein’s Heart Surgery Completed Without Complications
No Prison Time jumps to 33%10%
A report that Weinstein’s health had stabilized after heart surgery lowered the perceived risk of a lengthy sentence, pushing “No Prison Time” up to 33 %.
Spike in market belief for <5 years prison time after defense closing arguments
<5 years surges to 56%55%
Following defense closing arguments in Weinstein's retrial, market briefly increased probability for a short prison sentence under 5 years, reflecting uncertainty before final verdicts.
Harvey Weinstein replaces his legal team with high-profile defense attorneys
<5 years surges to 56%48%
Weinstein hired new lawyers, including Marc Agnifilo, to represent him in his upcoming third New York rape trial, signaling a shift in defense strategy.
Weinstein's New York retrial jury deadlocks again on rape charge
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
A second mistrial occurred after the jury could not reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, further diminishing the likelihood of a prison sentence from this retrial and boosting the 'No Prison Time' market.
Marc Agnifilo joins Weinstein’s defense team ahead of retrial
No Prison Time surges to 63%22%
Weinstein’s new legal team led by Marc Agnifilo announced a strategy to focus on consent arguments, which traders interpreted as weakening the prosecution, boosting “No Prison Time”.
Harvey Weinstein hires new legal team ahead of third New York trial
Yes jumps to 12%5%
Weinstein replaced his legal team with high-profile attorneys as a third New York trial loomed, signaling a strategic shift in defense and affecting market expectations about trial outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team with High-Profile Defense Attorneys for Upcoming Retrial
<5 years surges to 56%56%
Weinstein shook up his legal representation by hiring Marc Agnifilo and Teny Geragos, shifting the defense strategy ahead of his scheduled third New York trial.
Harvey Weinstein Defense Seeks Acquittal as Rape Retrial Nears Close
No Prison Time surges to 31%15%
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the retrial of the 2013 rape allegation, emphasizing inconsistencies and challenging accuser credibility, which likely influenced market skepticism about long prison terms.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial set to begin April 14
<5 years rises to 6%2%
The announcement of Weinstein's third New York rape retrial date focused market attention on the upcoming trial, which could impose up to 25 years in prison. This news increased the perceived likelihood of a prison sentence under 5 years, causing a price rise from 4% to 6%.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, influencing market perceptions of trial outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein hires new lawyer Marc Agnifilo ahead of retrial
No Prison Time surges to 31%19%
Weinstein changed counsel, hiring Marc Agnifilo’s firm. The new defense team was seen as more aggressive, prompting a swing back toward the No Prison Time outcome; the price rose from 12 % to 31 % within a week.
Harvey Weinstein Requests Earlier Trial Date Citing Failing Health as Judge Schedules April Retrial
No Prison Time surges to 30%21%
Weinstein appeared in court in a wheelchair, with his defense team highlighting his leukemia and heart disease diagnoses while requesting an expedited trial timeline.
Judge orders Weinstein retrial to finish by early June 2026
20-30 years jumps to 47%14%
Judge Farber set a deadline for the trial to end by the first week of June, tightening the timeline and increasing conviction pressure; the 20‑30‑year option rose to 47 % while No Prison Time fell to 8 %.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Yes surges to 25%17%
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense which influenced market expectations about trial outcomes.
Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial continuation
No Prison Time jumps to 35%10%
Weinstein hired new attorneys for the continuation of his retrial, signaling a strategic shift in defense. This change influenced market perceptions of his chances, contributing to fluctuations in the pricing of prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial opening statements emphasize consent dispute
Opening statements in the retrial focused on consent and the nature of Weinstein's relationship with accuser Jessica Mann, shaping jury and market expectations.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Yes surges to 50%17%
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in defense that affected market perceptions of trial outcomes and sentencing likelihood.
Weinstein considers guilty plea to avoid third sex assault trial
<5 years surges to 24%16%
Weinstein's legal team indicated on January 8, 2026, that he was considering pleading guilty to the third-degree rape charge to avoid a third trial, which increased market expectations of a prison sentence under 5 years.
Judge denies motion to vacate Weinstein conviction, sets March 3 retrial date
<5 years surges to 24%16%
On January 8, 2026, Judge Curtis Farber rejected Weinstein's motion to vacate his conviction for the criminal sexual act against Miriam Haleyi and scheduled a retrial for the unresolved rape charge, signaling continued legal jeopardy and increasing the chance of prison time under 5 years.
Judge Denies Harvey Weinstein's Motion for New Trial on Miriam Haley Conviction
No Prison Time surges to 25%18%
Judge Curtis Farber rejected Weinstein's bid to set aside his June 2025 conviction, solidifying the conviction and paving the way for a retrial on the deadlocked rape charge.
New York judge denies Weinstein's motion for new trial; mistrial declared on rape charge
No Prison Time rises to 21%3%
Judge Curtis Farber denied Weinstein's request for a new trial despite juror complaints, and declared a mistrial on the rape charge after the jury deadlocked. This legal development maintained uncertainty and influenced market prices by delaying resolution.
Judge denies Weinstein's motion for new trial amid juror complaints
On January 8, 2026, a New York judge denied Weinstein's request for a new trial despite juror complaints about deliberation conduct. The judge declared a mistrial on the rape charge due to jury deadlock, with prosecutors planning a retrial. This maintained the uncertainty around the rape charge and affected market confidence.
New York Judge Denies Harvey Weinstein's Request for New Trial Over Juror Coercion Claims
No Prison Time jumps to 26%7%
Judge Curtis Farber rejected the defense's motion for a new trial regarding the Miriam Haley conviction, keeping the guilty verdict intact while confirming a retrial would proceed for the deadlocked Jessica Mann rape charge.
Prosecutors request maximum penalty in Weinstein retrial
5-10 years jumps to 14%12%
After weeks of testimony, prosecutors announced they would seek the maximum penalty, causing a brief dip in “No Prison Time” odds and a rise in the 5‑10‑year bracket.
Prosecutors hint at plea‑bargain talks in Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time surges to 37%28%
Prosecutors announced a possible plea‑bargain discussion, fueling hopes of a reduced sentence; the No Prison Time price spiked to 37 % from 9 % earlier in the month.
Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley in New York retrial
<5 years jumps to 13%10%
A jury convicted Weinstein of sexually abusing Haley, increasing the market's belief in some prison time, but the acquittal on other charges and deadlock on the rape charge maintained uncertainty.
Prosecutors say they will review next steps after Weinstein‑mistrial
No Prison Time plunges to 9%32%
A New York appellate decision upheld the mistrial and announced that prosecutors would consider a fourth trial, reviving speculation of a future sentence and causing the market’s “No Prison Time” price to dip.
Analysis: Public fatigue with Weinstein case lowers sentencing expectations
No Prison Time jumps to 48%13%
A major media analysis piece highlighted the dwindling public sympathy for Weinstein, nudging the market back toward “No Prison Time” after a brief rise in longer‑sentence bets earlier in December.
Weinstein sentenced to 16 years in California for rape and sexual assault
In December 2022, Weinstein was convicted in Los Angeles on three counts of rape and sexual assault and sentenced to 16 years in prison. This sentence is separate from the New York case and contributes to his overall prison time, making it likely he will spend the rest of his life incarcerated regardless of New York retrial outcomes.
Court rejects motion to dismiss key charge in Weinstein retrial
20-30 years rises to 31%3%
A mid‑trial motion to dismiss a key charge was denied, reviving the possibility of a prison term and causing a brief rise in the “20‑30 years” price.
New York judge dismisses third-degree rape charge against Weinstein after prosecutors decline fourth trial
No Prison Time surges to 42%36%
A New York state court judge dismissed the unresolved rape charge after prosecutors decided not to pursue a fourth trial, clearing the way for sentencing on the existing conviction and increasing market confidence in a prison sentence being imposed.
Reports highlight Weinstein's deteriorating health and pending sentencing in New York
By December 2025, Weinstein was reported to be in poor health in New York custody, awaiting sentencing on the criminal sexual assault conviction, with no new sentence announced yet, maintaining market uncertainty and low pricing for prison time under 5 years.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault of Miriam Haley in retrial; acquitted on other charge
<5 years jumps to 13%11%
The jury convicted Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on another charge. This partial conviction increased the market's expectation of some prison time but not a very long sentence.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal in closing arguments
5-10 years plunges to 1%70%
Defense lawyers intensified their acquittal push during closing arguments, leading the market to briefly swing toward longer sentences as prosecutors prepared for a possible conviction.
Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Abuse of Miriam Haley in New York Retrial
No Prison Time rises to 10%3%
A Manhattan jury convicted Weinstein of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but deadlocked on other charges, including rape of Jessica Mann, leading to mixed market reactions and uncertainty about sentencing length.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial jury deadlocks on rape charge, mistrial declared
No Prison Time plunges to 5%65%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This uncertainty caused market volatility and lowered confidence in long prison sentences.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley in New York retrial
Yes surges to 68%53%
A jury convicted Weinstein of sexually abusing Haley, but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola and deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict maintained uncertainty about sentencing.
Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge in Weinstein Retrial, Leading to Mistrial on That Count
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial on that count. This outcome introduced uncertainty about the final sentence and influenced market prices toward no prison time or shorter sentences.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
Yes jumps to 13%6%
Weinstein was indicted on new sexual assault charges involving three victims, signaling ongoing legal challenges and potential for further retrials. This development affected market perceptions by extending the timeline and complexity of his New York legal battles.
Weinstein indicted on new charges after conviction overturned
No Prison Time rises to 31%2%
Weinstein was indicted on new charges involving three victims, extending the legal proceedings and affecting market confidence in a long prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time surges to 30%21%
The retrial began with opening statements in November 2025, introducing a new accuser Kaja Sokola and revisiting charges from previous trials. This event renewed market attention and caused volatility as the trial's outcome was uncertain.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
20-30 years surges to 47%15%
A Manhattan grand jury indicted Weinstein on three new sexual assault charges, signaling prosecutors' intent to pursue additional allegations and potentially increasing the likelihood of a prison sentence.
Manhattan DA opposes Weinstein's request for rape retrial
<5 years rises to 5%3%
The Manhattan District Attorney's office rejected Weinstein's motion to overturn the retrial conviction and opposed a new hearing, signaling that sentencing would proceed on the partial conviction, which influenced market prices toward a prison sentence under 5 years.
Harvey Weinstein hires new legal team for upcoming New York retrial
Weinstein replaced his legal team with high-profile lawyers as a third New York trial loomed, signaling a strategic shift and affecting market perceptions of trial outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team Ahead of Third New York Trial
Yes rises to 9%2%
Weinstein hired new attorneys as a third New York rape trial loomed, signaling ongoing legal battles and affecting market perceptions of his defense strategy and trial outcomes.
Judge rejects Weinstein's bid for new trial, upholds 2025 sex crime conviction
A New York judge denied Weinstein's request for a new trial following his 2025 conviction on a sexual assault charge, affirming the partial guilty verdict. This legal confirmation influenced market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to the limited scope of the conviction.
Weinstein hospitalized for emergency heart surgery
No Prison Time dips to 6%3%
Weinstein underwent emergency heart surgery, leading to speculation about trial delay; uncertainty pushed the No Prison Time price down to 6 % as a possible future postponement was seen as beneficial to the defense.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Opening Statements Delivered in New York
Opening statements were delivered in Weinstein's New York retrial, with prosecutors outlining charges and defense denying allegations. This event heightened market attention on the trial's progress and potential sentencing outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense that influenced market perceptions of trial outcomes.
Judge limits evidence in Weinstein retrial, dropping “friends list” testimony
No Prison Time surges to 28%21%
Judge Farber limited certain evidence, excluding the “friends of Harvey” list. The narrowing of prosecution evidence decreased the perceived risk of a long sentence, pushing “No Prison Time” higher.
Harvey Weinstein sentenced for criminal sexual act conviction in New York retrial
No Prison Time rises to 98%4%
Weinstein was sentenced following his conviction on one count of criminal sexual act, with the sentence reflecting the partial verdict and the dismissal of other charges. This event finalized the market's resolution based on the first sentence rendered in the retrial.
Grand jury indicts Weinstein on three additional New York sex‑crime counts
20-30 years surges to 33%21%
A grand jury indictment added three new counts, raising the potential exposure and causing the 20‑30‑year price to jump from 12 % to 33 %, while No Prison Time slipped to 12 %.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
<5 years rises to 10%4%
Weinstein was indicted on three new sexual assault charges in New York, signaling prosecutors' intent to pursue additional allegations and potentially increase prison time risk.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new sexual assault charges in New York
Yes surges to 43%36%
Weinstein was indicted on new charges involving allegations from three victims, signaling a strengthening prosecution case and extending the legal process, which influenced market pricing toward longer prison terms.
New charges filed against Harvey Weinstein in New York
A New York grand jury indicted Weinstein on new charges in September 2024, which prosecutors sought to consolidate into his retrial. This development extended the legal proceedings and contributed to the complexity and length of the retrial process.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
Following the overturning of his 2020 conviction, Weinstein was indicted on new charges involving allegations from three victims, renewing legal uncertainty and affecting market confidence in a lengthy prison sentence from the retrial.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after conviction overturned
20-30 years surges to 47%17%
Weinstein was indicted on new charges involving three victims, signaling prosecutors' intent to pursue additional allegations in the retrial. This development affected market perceptions of potential prison time outcomes.
Weinstein replaces legal team as New York retrial looms
10-20 years rises to 30%2%
Weinstein hired a new legal team ahead of a possible fourth trial, reviving market expectations of a harsher sentence if he is convicted again.
Weinstein indicted on additional sex crimes charge in New York
Yes jumps to 30%10%
In September 2025, Weinstein was indicted on a new sexual assault charge related to a 2006 incident, expanding the scope of the retrial and potentially affecting sentencing expectations.
Manhattan prosecutors announce plan for third trial on unresolved rape charge against Weinstein
No Prison Time dips to 39%3%
Prosecutors confirmed readiness to retry Weinstein on the unresolved rape charge, increasing the likelihood of further legal proceedings and delaying sentencing, which affected market expectations toward no immediate prison time resolution.
Harvey Weinstein to be tried for a third time in New York after mistrial on rape charge
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
Following the mistrial on the rape charge, prosecutors announced a third trial for Weinstein focusing on the remaining allegations. This prolonged the legal process and maintained uncertainty about the final prison sentence from the New York case.
Harvey Weinstein to face third New York trial after mistrial on rape charge
Following the mistrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, prosecutors announced plans for a third trial in 2025. This prolonged legal process contributed to market volatility and lowered expectations for a long prison sentence from the current retrial.
Judge sets possible sentencing date for Weinstein contingent on no retrial on unresolved rape charge
No Prison Time rises to 42%3%
Judge Curtis Farber announced he could sentence Weinstein on September 30, 2025, but only if there is no retrial on the unresolved rape charge. This conditional scheduling created uncertainty in the market about whether sentencing would occur within the analysis window.
Harvey Weinstein appears in court for possible sentencing or retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
Judge Curtis Farber indicated sentencing could occur if no retrial happens, or a retrial could be scheduled for fall 2025, maintaining market uncertainty about Weinstein's prison time outcome.
Defense delivers closing argument claiming accusers lied and encounters were consensual
Weinstein's attorney argued that the accusers were motivated by anger and money, framing the sexual encounters as consensual and urging the jury to dismiss the case if in doubt. This defense narrative influenced market sentiment on possible prison time.
Judge restricts evidence on Weinstein’s social‑list in retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
Judge Farber limited evidence on “friends of Harvey” list, perceived as a win for the defense; the market’s confidence in a prison sentence weakened, pushing No Prison Time to 9 % after a brief dip.
New accuser Kaja Sokola identified in Weinstein retrial opening
<5 years rises to 10%3%
The identification of a new accuser (Kaja Sokola) in opening statements raised speculation of additional charges, pushing the market briefly toward longer‑sentence outcomes.
Weinstein begins second New York retrial focusing on single rape charge
5-10 years jumps to 8%6%
A second trial opened on a single rape count after the mistrial, renewing the possibility of a prison sentence and pulling market odds back toward a modest term (5‑10 years).
Weinstein Defense Counters Prosecutors in Closing Statements
No Prison Time rises to 27%3%
Defense’s rebuttal emphasized lack of evidence, shifting some traders toward the “No Prison Time” outcome, causing price to rise to 27 %.
Prosecutors Deliver Closing Arguments in Weinstein Retrial
5-10 years jumps to 12%8%
Closing arguments were aired, with prosecutors emphasizing the seriousness of the crimes; markets responded by raising the “5‑10 years” price modestly.
Prosecutors narrow Weinstein retrial to a single rape count
No Prison Time drops to 7%6%
Prosecutors announced they would seek a single‑count rape charge rather than multiple counts, narrowing the case and raising doubts about a lengthy sentence; No Prison Time price fell to 7 %.
Prosecutors open Weinstein retrial with power‑abuse narrative
No Prison Time plunges to 7%21%
Prosecution opening statements highlighted Weinstein’s alleged abuse of power, causing a modest rise in “No Prison Time” as the jury heard the case but no verdict was yet rendered.
Weinstein's legal team changes ahead of third New York trial
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
Weinstein replaced his legal team with new attorneys as a third New York trial loomed, signaling ongoing legal battles and influencing market perceptions of his sentencing prospects.
Analysts discuss whether Weinstein’s California sentence will run concurrently
No Prison Time drops to 45%8%
Media speculation that Weinstein’s California 16‑year sentence could be served concurrently lowered expectations for additional New York time, causing a modest dip in the longer‑sentence options.
Weinstein replaces longtime lawyer with Jacob Kaplan ahead of retrial
No Prison Time drops to 7%6%
Weinstein’s long‑time lawyer stepped down and Jacob Kaplan was hired, signaling a new defense strategy. The market perceived this as weakening the prosecution’s case, nudging “No Prison Time” upward.
Jury deadlock on rape charge in Weinstein retrial leads to mistrial on that count
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
The jury was unable to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial on that count. This outcome increased uncertainty about the final sentencing and influenced market prices toward lower prison time probabilities.
Jury deadlock reported in Weinstein's New York retrial on rape charge
No Prison Time surges to 35%29%
Reports indicated a jury deadlock on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, creating uncertainty about a conviction and potential prison time, impacting market prices toward lower prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial continuation
Weinstein hired new attorneys for the continuation of his retrial, signaling ongoing legal strategy adjustments that maintained market uncertainty about sentencing outcomes.
Juror Illness Halts Weinstein Retrial After Two Weeks
No Prison Time jumps to 24%11%
A brief pause in the trial due to a juror’s illness lowered confidence in a conviction, causing the “No Prison Time” price to dip to 24 %.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Yes jumps to 29%12%
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including high-profile lawyers, signaling a strategic shift in his defense which influenced market expectations about trial outcomes and sentencing.
Closing arguments conclude in Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial
Yes jumps to 29%12%
Prosecutors urged the jury to convict Weinstein, emphasizing that the rules apply to him, while the defense argued the encounters were consensual. This event was critical as it preceded jury deliberations and final verdicts.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual abuse of Miriam Haley in New York retrial
<5 years rises to 10%4%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This partial conviction influenced market pricing toward some prison time but uncertainty remained.
Harvey Weinstein retrial closing arguments conclude in New York
No Prison Time rises to 32%3%
Prosecutors urged the jury to convict Weinstein, while defense argued for acquittal, highlighting the trial's conclusion and impending jury deliberations, which affected market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial Due to Jury Deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, prompting Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased the probability that no additional prison time would be imposed from this retrial, affecting market prices accordingly.
New York jury declares mistrial in Weinstein rape charge due to deadlock
No Prison Time dips to 3%3%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This prolonged the legal uncertainty and affected market confidence in a prison sentence from this retrial.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault on Miriam Haley in New York retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
A New York jury convicted Harvey Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing from this retrial.
Weinstein’s retrial ends in mistrial on third‑degree rape charge
5-10 years drops to 5%9%
A mistrial was declared on the unresolved rape count, leaving the already‑imposed sentence on the assault count as the only possible prison time, reinforcing the “5‑10 years” outcome.
Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but jury deadlocks on rape charge
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
In June 2025, Weinstein was convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but the jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial conviction and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.
Mistrial declared in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about a prison sentence from this retrial, pushing market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein Mistrial Declared on Rape Charge Involving Jessica Mann
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This maintained uncertainty about Weinstein's total prison sentence from the retrial, affecting market prices.
Mistrial Declared on Weinstein Rape Charge Involving Jessica Mann
No Prison Time drops to 1%5%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This maintained uncertainty about the final prison sentence, affecting market prices for longer prison terms.
Mistrial declared in Weinstein's New York retrial on rape charge
No Prison Time drops to 6%14%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This uncertainty affected market prices, increasing the probability of no prison time from this charge.
Weinstein retrial ends in mistrial on rape charge due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 11%4%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial and prolonging the legal uncertainty, which kept the market divided on potential prison time outcomes.
Weinstein's New York Retrial Ends in Mistrial Due to Deadlocked Jury
No Prison Time drops to 6%14%
The jury in Weinstein's New York retrial was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This outcome lowered the market's confidence in a lengthy prison sentence from this retrial.
Mistrial declared in Weinstein retrial on rape charge involving Jessica Mann
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This uncertainty affected market prices, reflecting doubts about a lengthy prison sentence from this charge.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time dips to 3%3%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about conviction and prison time, causing market fluctuations.
Jury deadlocks on rape charge in Weinstein retrial, deliberations to resume
No Prison Time drops to 6%10%
The jury was unable to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This prolonged uncertainty affected market confidence in a lengthy prison sentence from this retrial.
Harvey Weinstein New York Retrial Declared Mistrial on Rape Charge
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about a prison sentence from this charge, affecting market prices accordingly.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This outcome increased uncertainty about Weinstein receiving prison time from this retrial, influencing market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Jury deadlocks in Weinstein retrial on rape charge, mistrial declared
No Prison Time dips to 5%2%
The jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and increasing uncertainty about a conviction in this retrial, impacting market prices toward 'No Prison Time'.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but jury deadlocks on rape charge in New York retrial
<5 years jumps to 13%7%
Weinstein was found guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge, with the jury unable to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and continued uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein retrial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 25%18%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the case unresolved, which increased the market's probability of "No Prison Time."
Judge declares mistrial in Weinstein’s New York rape charge after deadlocked jury
No Prison Time surges to 73%41%
A mistrial was declared when the jury could not reach a verdict on the rape count, shifting market sentiment strongly toward “No Prison Time” since no sentencing could be rendered.
Jury deadlocked on rape charge against Harvey Weinstein, mistrial declared
The jury could not reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This increased uncertainty and affected market confidence in longer prison terms.
Weinstein Acquitted on Second Criminal Sexual Act Charge in Retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%3%
The jury acquitted Weinstein on a second charge, reducing the likelihood of a longer sentence and affecting market prices downward for higher prison time outcomes.
Judge declares mistrial on Harvey Weinstein's rape charge after jury foreperson reports bullying
No Prison Time jumps to 36%9%
Following jury deliberations, the judge declared a mistrial on the rape charge due to jury foreperson's claims of bullying and threats, leaving the rape charge unresolved and contributing to market uncertainty about a new prison sentence from this case.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
The jury foreperson in Weinstein's New York rape retrial declared he felt bullied and refused to continue deliberations, leading the judge to declare a mistrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leaving the case unresolved and sentencing pending.
Jury deadlocks on rape charge in Weinstein retrial, deliberations to continue
Yes drops to 17%6%
The jury did not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to continued deliberations and uncertainty about the final sentencing outcome, affecting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein Acquitted on Second Criminal Sexual Act Charge
No Prison Time plunges to 8%58%
The jury acquitted Weinstein on a second criminal sexual act charge, reducing the expected prison time and causing market adjustments.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge
5-10 years jumps to 15%8%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to mixed market reactions with some increase in conviction probabilities.
Weinstein Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge, Mistrial Declared
No Prison Time plunges to 6%22%
The jury could not reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial for that count. This uncertainty likely caused market volatility and reduced confidence in a long prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial
<5 years surges to 22%16%
Following the jury's unanimous guilty verdict on sexual assault charges, market prices adjusted to reflect increased likelihood of some prison time, though uncertainty remained about the final sentence length.
Judge Declares Mistrial on Jessica Mann Rape Charge After Jury Foreman Reports Intimidation
No Prison Time rises to 17%3%
The judge declared a mistrial on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann after the jury foreman refused to continue, alleging bullying by other jurors.
Mistrial declared on Jessica Mann rape charge after jury deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury foreperson refused to continue deliberations on the rape charge due to threats and infighting among jurors, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This event maintained uncertainty about Weinstein's total prison sentence from the New York case.
Harvey Weinstein's New York Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Rape Charge
No Prison Time rises to 8%1%
After the partial verdict, the jury foreperson expressed feeling bullied, leading the judge to declare a mistrial on the remaining rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This prolonged the legal uncertainty and affected market confidence in a definitive prison sentence from this case.
Mistrial declared for rape charge in Weinstein's New York retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The judge declared a mistrial on the remaining rape charge after the jury foreperson expressed feeling bullied and refused to continue deliberations, causing uncertainty and a market shift towards no prison time.
Jury deadlock on rape charge in Weinstein retrial leads to mistrial on that count
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
The jury was unable to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial on that count. This maintained uncertainty about the total prison sentence Weinstein might receive, affecting market prices.
Mistrial declared on additional rape charge against Weinstein
No Prison Time plunges to 14%25%
A mistrial was declared on June 12, 2025, for an additional rape charge, creating uncertainty and limiting the potential prison time from that charge, impacting market prices downward for longer sentences.
Mistrial declared on rape charge in Weinstein New York retrial after jury foreperson feels bullied
No Prison Time rises to 7%1%
The jury foreperson in Weinstein's retrial declared a mistrial on the rape charge after expressing fear and feeling bullied during deliberations, leading to uncertainty about the outcome of that charge.
Additional rape charge against Harvey Weinstein ends in mistrial after jury infighting
No Prison Time plunges to 7%43%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, and tensions among jurors led to a mistrial. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and lowered confidence in a long prison sentence from this charge.
Jury deadlocks on rape charge in Weinstein retrial, plans to resume deliberations
No Prison Time jumps to 39%5%
The jury was unable to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This uncertainty contributed to the market's strong shift toward "No Prison Time."
Mixed verdict in Weinstein retrial with acquittal and mistrial on some charges
No Prison Time dips to 6%4%
Following the guilty verdict on one count, Weinstein was acquitted on another and the jury deadlocked on a rape charge, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed outcome maintained market uncertainty about the final sentence length.
Mistrial declared in additional New York rape charge against Weinstein
No Prison Time dips to 36%3%
A mistrial was declared on June 12, 2025, for an additional rape charge, creating uncertainty and impacting market prices by reducing confidence in a definitive prison sentence from this trial.
Mistrial declared on remaining rape charge in Weinstein retrial after jury foreperson felt bullied
No Prison Time surges to 30%19%
The judge declared a mistrial on the remaining rape charge after the jury foreperson expressed feeling bullied, creating uncertainty about final sentencing and affecting market confidence in longer prison terms.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of one sexual assault charge in New York retrial
10-20 years surges to 69%29%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act in his New York retrial, while acquitted on another charge and with no verdict on a third. This conviction increased expectations of prison time from the retrial.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
10-20 years drops to 34%6%
A Manhattan jury found Weinstein guilty of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley but deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial mistrial.
Harvey Weinstein found guilty of sexual assault in New York retrial
No Prison Time surges to 97%91%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was convicted of forcibly subjecting a woman to a criminal sexual act but acquitted on another charge, with a third rape charge unresolved. This partial verdict was a critical legal development affecting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein convicted in New York retrial on sexual assault charge
5-10 years plunges to 12%38%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was convicted of one count of criminal sexual act in New York retrial, but the jury deadlocked on the rape charge, leading to a mixed verdict. This conviction influenced market prices by initially supporting prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of criminal sexual act in New York retrial
20-30 years plunges to 30%20%
Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act and not guilty of another, with no verdict on a third charge. This conviction increased the likelihood of prison time, impacting the market by raising the probability of a 20-year sentence outcome.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of one sexual assault charge in New York retrial
<5 years rises to 10%4%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted on another charge, with no verdict on a third. This conviction indicated some prison time was likely, impacting market prices for prison time outcomes.
Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial, Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
In the 2025 retrial, Weinstein was found guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count and uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein convicted in mixed verdict in New York retrial
<5 years jumps to 13%7%
Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act and not guilty of another, with no verdict on a third charge. This partial conviction increased market expectations for some prison time.
Harvey Weinstein Found Guilty of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial
20-30 years plunges to 33%17%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury did not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leaving uncertainty about the final prison sentence.
Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial
5-10 years plunges to 12%38%
In the New York retrial, Weinstein was found guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury did not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to continued uncertainty about his sentence.
Harvey Weinstein convicted on one sex charge, acquitted on another, mistrial declared on third
<5 years surges to 29%23%
The jury convicted Weinstein of one criminal sexual act charge, acquitted him on another, and declared a mistrial on a rape charge, creating mixed outcomes that influenced market expectations about his prison time.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sex crime amid contentious jury deliberations
No Prison Time surges to 98%48%
The jury's partial conviction on June 11, 2025, came after fractious deliberations, underscoring the complexity of the case and limiting the expected prison sentence. This event was pivotal in shifting market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Jury Reaches Split Verdict in Harvey Weinstein's New York Retrial
No Prison Time plunges to 17%33%
Weinstein was convicted of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola, while the jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault in New York retrial
<5 years rises to 10%3%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley in the 2006 incident but acquitted of another charge from the same year. This partial conviction influenced market prices, reducing the likelihood of no prison time but not confirming a long sentence.
Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault, Acquitted on Another, Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury convicted Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict influenced market prices, increasing probability of no additional prison time.
Weinstein convicted on one sexual assault charge, acquitted on another, mistrial declared on rape charge
No Prison Time surges to 30%24%
The jury returned a split verdict with Weinstein found guilty of one criminal sexual act, not guilty on another, and a mistrial declared on the rape charge, creating uncertainty about final sentencing and impacting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein convicted on one sex crime charge in New York retrial
No Prison Time dips to 27%2%
A Manhattan jury found Weinstein guilty on one count of a criminal sexual act but acquitted him on another charge and declared a mistrial on a third. This partial conviction raised the possibility of a prison sentence but left some charges unresolved, impacting market expectations for his prison time.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time surges to 41%21%
A Manhattan jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley in 2006 but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial mistrial and delaying his sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein convicted on one sexual assault charge, acquitted on another in New York retrial
20-30 years plunges to 30%20%
The jury convicted Weinstein on one sexual assault charge but acquitted him on another, with a third charge resulting in a mistrial due to jury deadlock. This mixed verdict introduced uncertainty about the final sentence from the New York case, impacting market prices for various prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of one sexual assault charge in New York retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%3%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted on another charge. This conviction indicated some prison time could be imposed, impacting market prices by increasing the likelihood of a prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of criminal sexual act in New York retrial
No Prison Time drops to 40%10%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was convicted of one count of criminal sexual act in a New York retrial, marking a partial guilty verdict but with no immediate sentencing. This conviction influenced market expectations for some prison time but uncertainty remained due to other charges and retrials.
Weinstein convicted on one count in New York retrial, mixed verdict
In the 2025 retrial, Weinstein was convicted of one sexual assault charge but acquitted on another, with a mistrial declared on a third, leading to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault in New York retrial
5-10 years plunges to 12%38%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was convicted of one count of criminal sexual act in New York retrial, but the jury deadlocked on the rape charge, leading to a mixed verdict. This partial conviction initially supported expectations of a prison sentence in the 5-10 or 10-20 years range.
Mistrial declared on additional rape charge against Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time rises to 7%3%
Jury deadlock on a rape charge led to a mistrial, increasing uncertainty about further sentencing and retrials, which affected market prices by lowering confidence in a long prison term.
Harvey Weinstein convicted in New York retrial on sexual assault charge
No Prison Time drops to 39%11%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was convicted of one count of criminal sexual act in New York retrial, signaling a partial guilty verdict that influenced market expectations of prison time.
Harvey Weinstein Found Guilty of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial
<5 years rises to 10%4%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with deliberations ongoing for the rape charge. This partial conviction influenced market prices by increasing the likelihood of some prison time but uncertainty remained about the full sentence.
Harvey Weinstein Found Guilty of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial
10-20 years surges to 70%36%
Weinstein was convicted of forcibly subjecting a woman to a criminal sexual act in 2006 during his retrial, increasing the likelihood of a prison sentence and impacting market prices for prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of criminal sexual act in New York retrial
5-10 years plunges to 12%38%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was convicted in a mixed verdict during his New York retrial, which included a guilty verdict on one count of criminal sexual act. This conviction influenced market prices by initially supporting prison time outcomes but with uncertainty about the length.
Harvey Weinstein faces up to 25 years in prison after New York sex crimes conviction
No Prison Time dips to 27%2%
Following the partial conviction, Weinstein faces a potential sentence of up to 25 years in prison for the criminal sexual act charge, influencing market pricing toward some prison time but with uncertainty due to unresolved charges.
Jury Convicts Harvey Weinstein of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial but Splits on Other Charges
10-20 years plunges to 33%17%
A Manhattan jury found Weinstein guilty of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley, but acquitted him of charges involving Kaja Sokola and deadlocked on a rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein convicted in mixed verdict in New York retrial
No Prison Time surges to 39%19%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but not guilty of another, with no verdict on a third allegation. This mixed verdict increased market confidence in some prison time but left uncertainty about the length.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexually Abusing Miriam Haley but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time surges to 41%27%
Weinstein was found guilty of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley, but the jury deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and a mistrial on that count.
Harvey Weinstein found guilty of sexual assault in New York retrial
5-10 years surges to 27%15%
The jury convicted Weinstein of forcibly subjecting a woman to a criminal sexual act in 2006, marking a partial guilty verdict in the retrial. This conviction influenced market prices by increasing the likelihood of prison time.
Harvey Weinstein convicted on one sexual assault charge in New York retrial
5-10 years plunges to 12%38%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act and not guilty on another, with no verdict on a third charge. This mixed verdict initially supported some expectation of prison time from the New York retrial.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of one sexual assault charge in New York retrial
5-10 years plunges to 12%38%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted on another charge, with no verdict on a third. This conviction increased the likelihood of a prison sentence in the retrial, impacting market prices toward prison time outcomes.
Weinstein sentenced to 16 years in California for rape and sexual assault
Weinstein was sentenced to 16 years in prison in California, a sentence he is currently serving and appealing. This sentence is separate from the New York retrial and does not affect this market's resolution but provides context for his overall incarceration.
Prosecutors recommend 20-year sentence for Weinstein's New York conviction
20-30 years jumps to 16%9%
Following the mixed verdict, prosecutors recommended a 20-year prison term for Weinstein's New York conviction, which influenced market prices for longer prison time outcomes before the final sentencing.
Weinstein found guilty of sexual assault of Miriam Haley in retrial
<5 years rises to 10%3%
After five days of deliberation, the jury convicted Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. This partial conviction increased expectations of some prison time but left uncertainty about the rape charge.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of criminal sexual act in New York retrial
<5 years surges to 29%23%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act and not guilty of another, with no verdict on a third charge. This mixed verdict initially supported expectations of some prison time from the retrial, impacting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of criminal sexual act in New York retrial
10-20 years drops to 40%10%
On June 11, 2025, Weinstein was found guilty of one count of criminal sexual act and not guilty on another, with no verdict on a third charge. This conviction marked a key development in his New York retrial, increasing the likelihood of prison time and impacting market prices towards a prison sentence.
Prosecutors recommend 20-year prison term for Weinstein in New York retrial
10-20 years surges to 68%18%
Prosecutors recommended a 20-year prison sentence for Weinstein following his conviction in the New York retrial, influencing market expectations towards a significant prison term but less than 30 years.
Harvey Weinstein Found Guilty of Sexual Assault in New York Retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
After five days of deliberation, the jury found Weinstein guilty of assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial conviction and impacting market confidence in a long sentence.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
5-10 years jumps to 13%11%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola, with no verdict reached on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict caused market shifts reflecting mixed expectations for prison time.
Harvey Weinstein retrial ends in partial verdict with mistrial on rape charge
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The retrial resulted in a conviction for forcing oral sex on Miriam Haley but acquittal on another charge and a mistrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, creating uncertainty about final sentencing and influencing market prices.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault on Miriam Haley but acquitted on Kaja Sokola charge
<5 years surges to 40%34%
In the New York retrial, the jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to uncertainty about sentencing and impacting market prices for prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
<5 years surges to 35%29%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to ongoing uncertainty about sentencing and prison time.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
Yes dips to 6%1%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted him on another, with no verdict on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict created uncertainty, impacting market prices for different prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein remains in New York custody awaiting retrial
Weinstein stayed in custody in New York pending retrial, with prosecutors aiming to bring new sexual assault charges. This maintained market uncertainty about trial outcomes and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team as retrial looms
No Prison Time jumps to 28%11%
Weinstein’s new counsel Jacob Kaplan took over the defence, a development that lifted “No Prison Time” sharply as analysts speculated a more aggressive defence strategy.
Weinstein's New York retrial jury deliberations begin
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
Jury deliberations started in Weinstein's New York retrial, with mixed expectations about the outcome. This event caused some volatility in market prices as the trial's resolution approached.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial ends in a mistrial
No Prison Time drops to 7%7%
Weinstein appeared in court for jury deliberations, but the jury dead‑locked on the third‑degree rape charge, leading to a mistrial. The lack of a conviction drove the market sharply toward “No Prison Time.”
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Yes dips to 10%2%
Weinstein hired new attorneys for his third New York trial, signaling a strategic shift in his defense which may have influenced market expectations about the trial's outcome and sentencing.
Weinstein’s New York retrial moves into evidence phase
5-10 years jumps to 12%6%
After a week of jury selection, the trial entered the evidence‑presentation phase, prompting a modest rise in expectations of a prison sentence as the case progressed.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
A majority-male jury could not reach a unanimous decision on the rape charge, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the New York conviction in limbo.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
<5 years rises to 10%4%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted him on another, with deliberations ongoing on a third charge. This partial verdict influenced market prices by confirming some prison time risk but leaving uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual abuse of Miriam Haley in New York retrial
5-10 years dips to 12%3%
In June 2025, Weinstein was convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with the jury deadlocking on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial conviction influenced market prices, reducing the likelihood of no prison time and increasing mid-range sentence probabilities.
Juror conflict arises during Weinstein retrial deliberations
No Prison Time dips to 6%3%
A juror requested removal citing unfair treatment of another juror, but the judge denied mistrial and ordered deliberations to continue. This event introduced uncertainty but did not halt the trial outcome process.
Harvey Weinstein found guilty of criminal sexual act in New York retrial
5-10 years drops to 4%8%
Weinstein was convicted on one count of sexual assault but acquitted on another, with the jury deadlocked on a rape charge. This mixed verdict caused market shifts reflecting uncertainty about the final prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
<5 years dips to 6%1%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge and the jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.
Prosecutors announce plan to seek 20-year sentence for Weinstein
20-30 years drops to 21%9%
Prosecutors declared their intent to request a 20-year prison term for Weinstein's conviction on a criminal sexual act charge, impacting market confidence in longer sentences.
Harvey Weinstein New York Retrial Begins with Opening Statements
No Prison Time jumps to 20%6%
Weinstein's retrial started with opening statements, including new charges from accuser Kaja Sokola. The prosecution emphasized Weinstein's abuse of power, while the defense claimed the accusations were false. This event marked the formal restart of the trial, affecting market prices for various sentence lengths.
Harvey Weinstein found guilty of sexual assault in New York retrial
<5 years rises to 10%4%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. This partial conviction increased the likelihood of some prison time, affecting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial opening statements highlight power abuse allegations
Opening statements portrayed Weinstein as a powerful figure who used his influence to commit sexual assaults, while defense argued consent and victim motives. This set the tone for the trial and influenced market expectations.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, influencing market perceptions of his chances.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time jumps to 20%6%
The retrial started with opening statements, including a new accuser Kaja Sokola, expanding the charges. This event marked the formal restart of the legal process, influencing market prices as the trial's outcome was uncertain.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial opens with opening statements and new accuser identified
20-30 years jumps to 29%12%
Opening statements began with prosecutors outlining the case and a new accuser, Kaja Sokola, added to the charges. This development heightened the seriousness of the retrial and influenced market prices by increasing perceived risk of prison time.
Harvey Weinstein New York Retrial Opens with Statements and New Accuser Identified
Yes jumps to 20%6%
The retrial officially began with opening statements, introducing a new accuser Kaja Sokola. This development added complexity to the case and influenced market perceptions of potential prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's New York Retrial Jury Selection Begins
No Prison Time jumps to 19%5%
Jury selection started for Weinstein's retrial in New York, signaling the trial's imminent start and increasing market focus on the retrial's outcome and potential sentencing.
Prosecutors Seek Additional Victims Ahead of Weinstein Retrial
20-30 years plunges to 17%33%
Reports that prosecutors were seeking additional victims increased speculation of a harsher sentence, pushing the “20‑30 years” price back up to 17 %.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with jury selection
Yes plunges to 13%37%
The retrial started with jury selection in Manhattan, focusing on sexual assault charges for which his previous conviction was overturned. This event marked the official restart of the case, impacting market expectations about the trial's outcome.
Harvey Weinstein New York Retrial Jury Selection Begins
No Prison Time dips to 6%1%
Jury selection for Weinstein's New York retrial began, signaling the start of the new trial process on multiple sexual assault charges. This event marked the market's adjustment to the retrial timeline and potential outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team Ahead of Retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including Luigi Mangione and Sean 'Diddy' Combs’ lawyers, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, impacting market perceptions of his defense strength.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with jury selection
Yes plunges to 13%37%
Jury selection started for Weinstein's retrial on sexual assault charges in New York, marking the official restart of the case after his 2020 conviction was overturned. This event initiated market activity reflecting renewed legal proceedings.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault in New York retrial
<5 years jumps to 13%10%
Weinstein was found guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge, with the jury unable to reach a verdict on a third charge. This partial conviction raised the possibility of a prison sentence in the retrial.
Opening statements delivered in Weinstein New York retrial
20-30 years rises to 17%4%
Opening statements were delivered, emphasizing the seriousness of the charges. Market participants shifted modestly toward a prison‑time outcome, lifting the “20‑30 years” price.
Weinstein’s lawyer says public protests have died down
No Prison Time rises to 17%3%
Weinstein’s lawyer publicly said the #MeToo protests had faded, prompting a brief dip in “No Prison Time” as the market sensed a less hostile environment for the defence.
Harvey Weinstein indicted on new charges after New York conviction overturned
Yes plunges to 17%33%
Weinstein was indicted on three new sexual assault charges in New York, adding complexity to his legal situation and likely affecting market perceptions of potential prison time.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Yes rises to 17%4%
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including Jacob Kaplan, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, impacting market perceptions of his chances.
Weinstein convicted of one count, acquitted of another; jury deadlocked on third
5-10 years jumps to 14%11%
The jury reached a mixed verdict: guilty on one count, acquitted on another, and deadlocked on the third. The partial conviction introduced a concrete prison term range, shifting market weight toward the 5‑10‑year bracket.
Weinstein’s Cancer Treatment Raises Questions About Trial Schedule
No Prison Time jumps to 87%12%
A sudden surge in “No Prison Time” price to 87 % followed a report that Weinstein’s health issues might delay the trial, lowering perceived risk of a prison sentence.
Harvey Weinstein's New York Retrial Begins with Opening Statements
No Prison Time plunges to 20%30%
The retrial of Harvey Weinstein officially commenced in Manhattan criminal court with opening statements, focusing on charges of criminal sexual acts and rape.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser testimony
Yes plunges to 13%37%
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser, Kaja Sokola, testifying. This event marked the formal restart of Weinstein's legal battle in New York, impacting market expectations about the trial's outcome.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial begins with jury selection
No Prison Time plunges to 13%37%
Jury selection began for Weinstein’s New York retrial, marking the first substantive step toward a possible sentence. Prices slid toward “No Prison Time” as the trial’s outcome was still uncertain.
Jury selection begins for Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial
Yes plunges to 14%36%
Jury selection started in May 2025 for Weinstein's retrial after his 2020 conviction was overturned. This marked the formal restart of the legal process, impacting market expectations about the trial's outcome and timing.
Harvey Weinstein New York retrial for sex crimes begins with jury selection
Yes plunges to 14%36%
The retrial started with jury selection in May 2025 after Weinstein's 2020 conviction was overturned due to procedural errors. This event marked the official restart of the legal process, influencing market prices as the trial's outcome was uncertain.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with jury selection
The retrial started with jury selection in Manhattan, marking the third trial after the 2020 conviction was overturned. This event initiated market activity reflecting renewed legal uncertainty.
Harvey Weinstein New York Retrial Jury Selection Begins
No Prison Time jumps to 20%6%
Jury selection started for Weinstein's New York retrial, marking the formal restart of the trial process. This event set the stage for the retrial and influenced market prices as the case moved forward.
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