The Bank of Russia's September 11 decision to hold its key rate at 14% for the first time in 15 months, after ten consecutive cuts, has kept the October outcome closely contested between no change and a modest reduction. Persistent upside risks to inflation, including a temporary surge in underlying price growth to 5-6% annualized from fuel supply disruptions and one-off factors, alongside concerns over expansionary fiscal policy and a wider structural budget deficit, support the slim trader edge for no change. Weak economic growth near zero and moderating aggregate demand continue to sustain expectations for further easing, though the central bank has signaled caution until disinflation proves durable. Incoming September inflation data, the October budget submission, and any evolution in second-round effects will likely determine whether probabilities separate ahead of the October 23 meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No Change 53%
Decrease 45%
Increase 3.5%
$17,902 Vol.
$17,902 Vol.
2026/10/23
Decrease
45%
No Change
53%
Increase
4%
No Change 53%
Decrease 45%
Increase 3.5%
$17,902 Vol.
$17,902 Vol.
2026/10/23
Decrease
$5,880 Vol.
45%
No Change
$5,147 Vol.
53%
Increase
$6,875 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s October meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its October 23, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The Bank of Russia's September 11 decision to hold its key rate at 14% for the first time in 15 months, after ten consecutive cuts, has kept the October outcome closely contested between no change and a modest reduction. Persistent upside risks to inflation, including a temporary surge in underlying price growth to 5-6% annualized from fuel supply disruptions and one-off factors, alongside concerns over expansionary fiscal policy and a wider structural budget deficit, support the slim trader edge for no change. Weak economic growth near zero and moderating aggregate demand continue to sustain expectations for further easing, though the central bank has signaled caution until disinflation proves durable. Incoming September inflation data, the October budget submission, and any evolution in second-round effects will likely determine whether probabilities separate ahead of the October 23 meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s October meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its October 23, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its October 23, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 11:59 AM ET
音量
$17,902終了日
2026/10/23マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 11:59 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s October meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its October 23, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The Bank of Russia's September 11 decision to hold its key rate at 14% for the first time in 15 months, after ten consecutive cuts, has kept the October outcome closely contested between no change and a modest reduction. Persistent upside risks to inflation, including a temporary surge in underlying price growth to 5-6% annualized from fuel supply disruptions and one-off factors, alongside concerns over expansionary fiscal policy and a wider structural budget deficit, support the slim trader edge for no change. Weak economic growth near zero and moderating aggregate demand continue to sustain expectations for further easing, though the central bank has signaled caution until disinflation proves durable. Incoming September inflation data, the October budget submission, and any evolution in second-round effects will likely determine whether probabilities separate ahead of the October 23 meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s October meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its October 23, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its October 23, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
音量
$17,902終了日
2026/10/23マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 11:59 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Russia's September 11 decision to hold its key rate at 14% for the first time in 15 months, after ten consecutive cuts, has kept the October outcome closely contested between no change and a modest reduction. Persistent upside risks to inflation, including a temporary surge in underlying price growth to 5-6% annualized from fuel supply disruptions and one-off factors, alongside concerns over expansionary fiscal policy and a wider structural budget deficit, support the slim trader edge for no change. Weak economic growth near zero and moderating aggregate demand continue to sustain expectations for further easing, though the central bank has signaled caution until disinflation proves durable. Incoming September inflation data, the October budget submission, and any evolution in second-round effects will likely determine whether probabilities separate ahead of the October 23 meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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