The Bank of Japan’s October policy decision carries an 78% market-implied probability of no change, reflecting broad trader consensus that the central bank will deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting instead. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s September 2 remarks that rate adjustments remain under active consideration at every gathering, including the near-term one, reinforced this view amid upside risks to inflation from yen weakness, elevated import costs, and firm services prices. July core CPI reached 1.8% year-over-year, the highest level since January, while recent BOJ communications have highlighted the need to address these pressures before they embed further. With the policy rate already normalized to 1% after the June move, markets price only modest additional tightening by year-end, consistent with a gradual path toward a neutral rate near 2%. The September outcome will serve as the key near-term catalyst for October expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
2026/10/29
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
2026/10/29
50+ bps decrease
$2,805 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$5,438 Vol.
<1%
No change
$29,685 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$23,686 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$6,931 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s October policy decision carries an 78% market-implied probability of no change, reflecting broad trader consensus that the central bank will deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting instead. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s September 2 remarks that rate adjustments remain under active consideration at every gathering, including the near-term one, reinforced this view amid upside risks to inflation from yen weakness, elevated import costs, and firm services prices. July core CPI reached 1.8% year-over-year, the highest level since January, while recent BOJ communications have highlighted the need to address these pressures before they embed further. With the policy rate already normalized to 1% after the June move, markets price only modest additional tightening by year-end, consistent with a gradual path toward a neutral rate near 2%. The September outcome will serve as the key near-term catalyst for October expectations.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$68,546終了日
2026/10/30マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s October policy decision carries an 78% market-implied probability of no change, reflecting broad trader consensus that the central bank will deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting instead. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s September 2 remarks that rate adjustments remain under active consideration at every gathering, including the near-term one, reinforced this view amid upside risks to inflation from yen weakness, elevated import costs, and firm services prices. July core CPI reached 1.8% year-over-year, the highest level since January, while recent BOJ communications have highlighted the need to address these pressures before they embed further. With the policy rate already normalized to 1% after the June move, markets price only modest additional tightening by year-end, consistent with a gradual path toward a neutral rate near 2%. The September outcome will serve as the key near-term catalyst for October expectations.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$68,546終了日
2026/10/30マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s October policy decision carries an 78% market-implied probability of no change, reflecting broad trader consensus that the central bank will deliver a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting instead. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s September 2 remarks that rate adjustments remain under active consideration at every gathering, including the near-term one, reinforced this view amid upside risks to inflation from yen weakness, elevated import costs, and firm services prices. July core CPI reached 1.8% year-over-year, the highest level since January, while recent BOJ communications have highlighted the need to address these pressures before they embed further. With the policy rate already normalized to 1% after the June move, markets price only modest additional tightening by year-end, consistent with a gradual path toward a neutral rate near 2%. The September outcome will serve as the key near-term catalyst for October expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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