**Strained Japan-China relations, rooted in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 remarks on a potential Taiwan contingency and collective self-defense, remain the dominant factor shaping prospects for a Xi Jinping-Takaichi meeting.** These comments triggered Beijing’s sharp diplomatic and economic pushback, including tightened export controls on critical minerals and rare earths that have disrupted Japanese supply chains, alongside travel advisories and canceled exchanges. The last leaders’ meeting occurred on the sidelines of the October 2025 APEC summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, where both sides reaffirmed interest in a “mutually beneficial strategic relationship” and crisis-management dialogue but made limited concrete progress on maritime security, Senkaku/Diaoyu issues, or import restrictions. As of mid-September 2026, bilateral ties sit at a decade-low, with Chinese officials publicly labeling Takaichi’s Taiwan stance the primary obstacle. Recent lower-level efforts—including cross-party Japanese parliamentary delegations visiting Beijing in September 2026—signal Tokyo’s attempt to reopen channels ahead of the November 2026 APEC summit, which could again offer a neutral venue for a sideline encounter. Trader assessments hinge on whether these overtures produce verifiable de-escalation signals, such as eased mineral export flows or confirmed high-level scheduling, versus sustained Chinese pressure that keeps direct leader engagement on hold. Structural factors like ongoing East China Sea tensions and differing approaches to regional security further constrain near-term breakthroughs.