Kanye West’s planned October 2026 concerts in St. Petersburg, the main catalyst cited for any potential Russia visit, faced immediate domestic opposition and were blocked when Gazprom Arena stated on August 25 that no rental agreement existed. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had already dismissed any Putin meeting on August 20, describing it as outside the presidential administration’s scope. West’s history of antisemitic and pro-Nazi remarks has drawn criticism from Russian lawmakers, further reducing the feasibility of a high-level encounter. With the concert window closing rapidly and no alternative diplomatic or private channels reported, traders assign 95.5% probability to “No.” Late developments such as an unscheduled private trip or abrupt policy shift remain theoretically possible but face significant logistical, political, and reputational barriers before the October 31 resolution date.