Carlos Alcaraz’s ongoing right-wrist tenosynovitis has kept the two-time defending US Open champion sidelined since his April withdrawal from Barcelona, with no competitive matches since then. His late pullout from the Cincinnati Masters further reduced preparation time ahead of the August 30 start in New York, where he remains on the entry list as the top seed. Limited recent form and the absence of hard-court tune-ups create downside risk for participation, yet reports of a reserved mixed-doubles wildcard and targeting a possible late-August return at Winston-Salem underpin trader confidence. At 67.5% implied probability for “Yes,” the market reflects the view that Alcaraz is more likely than not to compete, tempered by the unpredictable recovery timeline for wrist injuries in elite tennis.