Rebeca Grynspan leads trader sentiment in the UN Secretary-General race at 45% implied probability after topping the Security Council’s first informal straw poll in late July with the most “encourage” votes among nominees. Her position as UNCTAD head and former Costa Rican vice president positions her as a continuity candidate with broad Latin American backing and minimal objections so far. Rafael Grossi’s 29.5% share reflects his strong record as IAEA director general and experience mediating conflicts like those in Ukraine and Iran, though he trails in early council soundings. Achim Steiner’s comparable 29.4% pricing highlights his UNDP leadership and development expertise amid ongoing debates over regional rotation and the push for the first female secretary-general. With the process entering its final straw-poll phase before an expected autumn conclusion, recent candidate dialogues and veto-power dynamics continue to shape these crowd-sourced probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoChi sarà il prossimo Segretario Generale delle Nazioni Unite?
Chi sarà il prossimo Segretario Generale delle Nazioni Unite?
Rafael Grossi 59%
Rebeca Grynspan 53.9%
Michelle Bachelet 3.6%
Jacinda Ardern 3.5%
$80,086 Vol.
$80,086 Vol.
Rafael Grossi
59%
Rebeca Grynspan
45%
Michelle Bachelet
4%
Jacinda Ardern
3%
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
2%
Kristalina Georgieva
1%
Bruno Donat
1%
Amina Mohammed
1%
Mia Mottley
<1%
Alicia Bárcena
<1%
Colombe Cahen-Salvador
22%
David Choquehuanca
<1%
Vuk Jeremić
<1%
Achim Steiner
29%
Rafael Grossi 59%
Rebeca Grynspan 53.9%
Michelle Bachelet 3.6%
Jacinda Ardern 3.5%
$80,086 Vol.
$80,086 Vol.
Rafael Grossi
59%
Rebeca Grynspan
45%
Michelle Bachelet
4%
Jacinda Ardern
3%
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés
2%
Kristalina Georgieva
1%
Bruno Donat
1%
Amina Mohammed
1%
Mia Mottley
<1%
Alicia Bárcena
<1%
Colombe Cahen-Salvador
22%
David Choquehuanca
<1%
Vuk Jeremić
<1%
Achim Steiner
29%
This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.
If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.
If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rebeca Grynspan leads trader sentiment in the UN Secretary-General race at 45% implied probability after topping the Security Council’s first informal straw poll in late July with the most “encourage” votes among nominees. Her position as UNCTAD head and former Costa Rican vice president positions her as a continuity candidate with broad Latin American backing and minimal objections so far. Rafael Grossi’s 29.5% share reflects his strong record as IAEA director general and experience mediating conflicts like those in Ukraine and Iran, though he trails in early council soundings. Achim Steiner’s comparable 29.4% pricing highlights his UNDP leadership and development expertise amid ongoing debates over regional rotation and the push for the first female secretary-general. With the process entering its final straw-poll phase before an expected autumn conclusion, recent candidate dialogues and veto-power dynamics continue to shape these crowd-sourced probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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