FIFA's firm rejection of any Iran replacement at the 2026 World Cup underpins the overwhelming "No Replacement" consensus, reinforced by official statements confirming Iran's Group G participation despite U.S. visa restrictions, fan ticket revocations, and security concerns tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Iran has secured logistical workarounds, including a Mexico training base for cross-border matchdays in Los Angeles and Seattle, aligning with FIFA statutes that limit substitutions to rare withdrawals from the same confederation. Recent proposals, such as a U.S. envoy's suggestion to insert Italy, drew swift dismissals from FIFA, Italian officials, and tournament organizers, underscoring merit-based qualification over political swaps. A withdrawal remains the primary risk factor that could elevate AFC sides like the UAE, though no such development has materialized near kickoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale squadra sostituirà l'Iran ai Mondiali?
Quale squadra sostituirà l'Iran ai Mondiali?
No Replacement 99.1%
Italy <1%
UAE <1%
Bolivia <1%
$81,827 Vol.
$81,827 Vol.
31 ago 2026
No Replacement
99%
Italy
1%
UAE
1%
Bolivia
<1%
Other
<1%
No Replacement 99.1%
Italy <1%
UAE <1%
Bolivia <1%
$81,827 Vol.
$81,827 Vol.
31 ago 2026
No Replacement
$31,239 Vol.
99%
Italy
$34,371 Vol.
1%
UAE
$6,652 Vol.
1%
Bolivia
$3,634 Vol.
<1%
Other
$5,930 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.FIFA's firm rejection of any Iran replacement at the 2026 World Cup underpins the overwhelming "No Replacement" consensus, reinforced by official statements confirming Iran's Group G participation despite U.S. visa restrictions, fan ticket revocations, and security concerns tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Iran has secured logistical workarounds, including a Mexico training base for cross-border matchdays in Los Angeles and Seattle, aligning with FIFA statutes that limit substitutions to rare withdrawals from the same confederation. Recent proposals, such as a U.S. envoy's suggestion to insert Italy, drew swift dismissals from FIFA, Italian officials, and tournament organizers, underscoring merit-based qualification over political swaps. A withdrawal remains the primary risk factor that could elevate AFC sides like the UAE, though no such development has materialized near kickoff.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$81,827Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.FIFA's firm rejection of any Iran replacement at the 2026 World Cup underpins the overwhelming "No Replacement" consensus, reinforced by official statements confirming Iran's Group G participation despite U.S. visa restrictions, fan ticket revocations, and security concerns tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Iran has secured logistical workarounds, including a Mexico training base for cross-border matchdays in Los Angeles and Seattle, aligning with FIFA statutes that limit substitutions to rare withdrawals from the same confederation. Recent proposals, such as a U.S. envoy's suggestion to insert Italy, drew swift dismissals from FIFA, Italian officials, and tournament organizers, underscoring merit-based qualification over political swaps. A withdrawal remains the primary risk factor that could elevate AFC sides like the UAE, though no such development has materialized near kickoff.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$81,827Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...FIFA's firm rejection of any Iran replacement at the 2026 World Cup underpins the overwhelming "No Replacement" consensus, reinforced by official statements confirming Iran's Group G participation despite U.S. visa restrictions, fan ticket revocations, and security concerns tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Iran has secured logistical workarounds, including a Mexico training base for cross-border matchdays in Los Angeles and Seattle, aligning with FIFA statutes that limit substitutions to rare withdrawals from the same confederation. Recent proposals, such as a U.S. envoy's suggestion to insert Italy, drew swift dismissals from FIFA, Italian officials, and tournament organizers, underscoring merit-based qualification over political swaps. A withdrawal remains the primary risk factor that could elevate AFC sides like the UAE, though no such development has materialized near kickoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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