Mississippi's historically low voter participation rates shape expectations for the November 2026 U.S. Senate general election turnout, with recent analyses pointing to patterns from the state's 2023 gubernatorial contest that drew roughly 821,000 ballots. Midterm elections typically see reduced engagement compared to presidential years, when the state set records above 1.2 million votes. Democratic efforts to boost participation among Black voters, who comprise about one-third of the electorate, and Republican base mobilization in a competitive race could influence final numbers, though structural factors like registration levels and enthusiasm gaps limit upside. Trader consensus around the 700,000-800,000 range reflects these base rates and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts as of early September.