No M6.5+ earthquakes have been recorded globally from August 3–8, 2026, leaving only one day in the window and driving the market’s 81.5% implied probability for zero events. USGS data show two M6.3 quakes on August 5—one at 226 km depth south of the Kermadec Islands and a shallow event near Sarangani, Philippines—both below the threshold and consistent with typical background rates of 15–20 M6.5+ events annually worldwide. The absence of aftershock sequences, mainshocks, or elevated activity along major subduction zones supports trader consensus for zero or at most one qualifying event. With limited remaining time and no forecast signals of imminent larger releases, probabilities for two or more stay low.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore dal 3 al 9 agosto?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore dal 3 al 9 agosto?
0 82%
1 16%
2 3.9%
3 1.0%
$11,131 Vol.
$11,131 Vol.
10 ago 2026
0
82%
1
16%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 82%
1 16%
2 3.9%
3 1.0%
$11,131 Vol.
$11,131 Vol.
10 ago 2026
0
$6,156 Vol.
82%
1
$2,171 Vol.
16%
2
$335 Vol.
4%
3
$466 Vol.
1%
4
$345 Vol.
<1%
5
$854 Vol.
<1%
>5
$804 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No M6.5+ earthquakes have been recorded globally from August 3–8, 2026, leaving only one day in the window and driving the market’s 81.5% implied probability for zero events. USGS data show two M6.3 quakes on August 5—one at 226 km depth south of the Kermadec Islands and a shallow event near Sarangani, Philippines—both below the threshold and consistent with typical background rates of 15–20 M6.5+ events annually worldwide. The absence of aftershock sequences, mainshocks, or elevated activity along major subduction zones supports trader consensus for zero or at most one qualifying event. With limited remaining time and no forecast signals of imminent larger releases, probabilities for two or more stay low.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$11,131Data di fine
10 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No M6.5+ earthquakes have been recorded globally from August 3–8, 2026, leaving only one day in the window and driving the market’s 81.5% implied probability for zero events. USGS data show two M6.3 quakes on August 5—one at 226 km depth south of the Kermadec Islands and a shallow event near Sarangani, Philippines—both below the threshold and consistent with typical background rates of 15–20 M6.5+ events annually worldwide. The absence of aftershock sequences, mainshocks, or elevated activity along major subduction zones supports trader consensus for zero or at most one qualifying event. With limited remaining time and no forecast signals of imminent larger releases, probabilities for two or more stay low.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$11,131Data di fine
10 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...No M6.5+ earthquakes have been recorded globally from August 3–8, 2026, leaving only one day in the window and driving the market’s 81.5% implied probability for zero events. USGS data show two M6.3 quakes on August 5—one at 226 km depth south of the Kermadec Islands and a shallow event near Sarangani, Philippines—both below the threshold and consistent with typical background rates of 15–20 M6.5+ events annually worldwide. The absence of aftershock sequences, mainshocks, or elevated activity along major subduction zones supports trader consensus for zero or at most one qualifying event. With limited remaining time and no forecast signals of imminent larger releases, probabilities for two or more stay low.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Ci saranno esattamente 0 terremoti di magnitudo 6,5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 10 al 16 agosto?
48%
Sì
Ci saranno 6 o meno terremoti di magnitudo 5,5 o superiore nel mondo dal 10 agosto al 16 agosto?
28%
Sì
Ci saranno tra 14 e 16 terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore in tutto il mondo nel 2026?
49%
Sì
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