Mexico's status as co-host and its three group-stage matches in Mexican venues, including the tournament opener against South Africa at high-altitude Estadio Azteca, anchor trader consensus around its 53.5% implied probability. South Korea and Czechia sit close behind at 21.5% and 18.5% on the strength of established international experience and recent qualifying form, with Czech set-piece organization and South Korea's attacking depth offering realistic paths to top-two finishes. South Africa trails at 6.3% as the lowest-ranked side entering its first World Cup appearance since 2010. With the group stage opening June 11 and no matches yet played, market positioning reflects pre-tournament assessments of home advantage, squad depth, and historical performance rather than current results.