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Politik·Wisconsin Primary

WI-07 Republican Primary Winner

icon for WI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Politik·Wisconsin Primary

WI-07 Republican Primary Winner

Michael Alfonso 78%

Don Raihala 14%

Kevin Hermening 14%

Niina Baum 9%

Polymarket
BARU

Michael Alfonso 78%

Don Raihala 14%

Kevin Hermening 14%

Niina Baum 9%

Polymarket
BARU

Michael Alfonso

$25 Vol.

78%

Don Raihala

$19 Vol.

14%

Kevin Hermening

$0 Vol.

14%

Niina Baum

$23 Vol.

11%

Jessi Ebben

$5 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Michael Alfonso leads the WI-07 Republican primary market at 75% implied probability ahead of the August 11 contest for the open seat vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany. Trump’s January 2026 endorsement, combined with Alfonso’s ties to former district Rep. Sean Duffy and substantial early fundraising supported by affiliated PAC spending, has consolidated much of the party establishment and voter attention behind the 26-year-old media producer. The remaining field—Niina Baum, Kevin Hermening, Jessi Ebben, and Don Raihala—trails in the mid-teens or lower, reflecting limited name recognition and resources in a crowded primary. Recent polling and debate participation have not produced measurable shifts, leaving Alfonso’s advantages from high-profile backing and organizational support as the dominant factors in current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$72
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 11, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Michael Alfonso leads the WI-07 Republican primary market at 75% implied probability ahead of the August 11 contest for the open seat vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany. Trump’s January 2026 endorsement, combined with Alfonso’s ties to former district Rep. Sean Duffy and substantial early fundraising supported by affiliated PAC spending, has consolidated much of the party establishment and voter attention behind the 26-year-old media producer. The remaining field—Niina Baum, Kevin Hermening, Jessi Ebben, and Don Raihala—trails in the mid-teens or lower, reflecting limited name recognition and resources in a crowded primary. Recent polling and debate participation have not produced measurable shifts, leaving Alfonso’s advantages from high-profile backing and organizational support as the dominant factors in current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$72
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 11, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"WI-07 Republican Primary Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 5 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Michael Alfonso" di 78%, diikuti oleh "Don Raihala" di 14%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 78¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 78% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"WI-07 Republican Primary Winner" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jul 20, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "WI-07 Republican Primary Winner," jelajahi 5 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "WI-07 Republican Primary Winner" adalah "Michael Alfonso" di 78%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 78% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Don Raihala" di 14%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "WI-07 Republican Primary Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.