OXY’s long-term contract extension with Cloud9 through 2028 anchors the market, yet the absence of official roster announcements or confirmed negotiations leaves traders evenly split across VCT Americas contenders. Recent VCT 2026 Stage 2 results and broader offseason roster flux— including moves at Sentinels, 100 Thieves, and NRG—have fueled speculation without concrete leaks tying the duelist to any specific organization. This information vacuum, combined with typical free-agency dynamics where teams balance salary, role fit, and competitive needs, keeps implied probabilities clustered tightly between roughly 44.5% and 50% for listed squads and “Other.”