Incumbent Mark Sutcliffe maintains a commanding lead in the October 26, 2026 Ottawa mayoral race, reflected in trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability. Recent July 2026 polling shows him at 36% among decided voters, ahead of homebuilder Alex Lawson and Councillor Jeff Leiper, who are effectively tied near 25% each amid a fragmented field that splits opposition support. Sutcliffe benefits from incumbency advantages, including provincial funding wins on transit and infrastructure, while challengers like Leiper and Lawson trade positions on issues such as a proposed ring road to ease gridlock. Neil Saravanamuttoo and Catherine McKenney trail with minimal traction. With over two months until election day and a large undecided share, the race remains open to shifts from further polling or campaign developments.