Chris Hipkins leads the market at 50% as Labour’s preferred prime minister polling edge over incumbent Christopher Luxon has widened in recent months amid voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions and cost-of-living pressures under the National-led coalition. The November 7 general election remains the decisive event, with party support running close and the outcome likely hinging on turnout, coalition negotiations, and late-campaign momentum. Luxon’s 38.5% share reflects National’s governing record and his survival of recent internal leadership challenges, though personal ratings have softened. Minor-party figures such as Nicola Willis, David Seymour, and Winston Peters register low probabilities consistent with their limited standalone support and dependence on post-election arrangements.