Trader consensus heavily favors the "No" outcome at 84.5% implied probability because Eli Lilly and Peptron maintain only an extended platform technology evaluation agreement, focused on non-commercial research applying the SmartDepot sustained-release microsphere platform to peptide candidates. This 14-to-24-month review, originally set to conclude in late 2025 and now running through October 7, 2026, has produced no public signals of advancing to a formal commercial licensing deal. Recent statements confirm ongoing work across multiple candidates yet explicitly exclude key assets like tirzepatide, while Lilly’s broader pivot toward oral obesity formulations adds further uncertainty. With roughly seven weeks remaining, the tight timeline and absence of demonstrated progress or regulatory filings make a completed licensing agreement by the resolution date improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui16% peluang
$11,264 Vol.
$11,264 Vol.
Oct 6, 2026
16% peluang
$11,264 Vol.
$11,264 Vol.
Oct 6, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eli Lilly signs a commercial licensing agreement, technology transfer agreement, or equivalent binding agreement with Peptron that grants Eli Lilly commercial rights to Peptron’s SmartDepot technology by the specified date, 11:59 PM Korea Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only commercial licensing agreements, technology transfer agreements, or equivalent binding agreements that grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to develop, manufacture, sell, or otherwise commercialize Peptron’s SmartDepot technology will qualify.
Co-development agreements will not qualify. Extensions of the existing Technology Evaluation Agreement or other agreements which are non-binding or do not grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to SmartDepot will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eli Lilly and Peptron; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors the "No" outcome at 84.5% implied probability because Eli Lilly and Peptron maintain only an extended platform technology evaluation agreement, focused on non-commercial research applying the SmartDepot sustained-release microsphere platform to peptide candidates. This 14-to-24-month review, originally set to conclude in late 2025 and now running through October 7, 2026, has produced no public signals of advancing to a formal commercial licensing deal. Recent statements confirm ongoing work across multiple candidates yet explicitly exclude key assets like tirzepatide, while Lilly’s broader pivot toward oral obesity formulations adds further uncertainty. With roughly seven weeks remaining, the tight timeline and absence of demonstrated progress or regulatory filings make a completed licensing agreement by the resolution date improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eli Lilly signs a commercial licensing agreement, technology transfer agreement, or equivalent binding agreement with Peptron that grants Eli Lilly commercial rights to Peptron’s SmartDepot technology by the specified date, 11:59 PM Korea Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only commercial licensing agreements, technology transfer agreements, or equivalent binding agreements that grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to develop, manufacture, sell, or otherwise commercialize Peptron’s SmartDepot technology will qualify.
Co-development agreements will not qualify. Extensions of the existing Technology Evaluation Agreement or other agreements which are non-binding or do not grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to SmartDepot will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eli Lilly and Peptron; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only commercial licensing agreements, technology transfer agreements, or equivalent binding agreements that grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to develop, manufacture, sell, or otherwise commercialize Peptron’s SmartDepot technology will qualify.
Co-development agreements will not qualify. Extensions of the existing Technology Evaluation Agreement or other agreements which are non-binding or do not grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to SmartDepot will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eli Lilly and Peptron; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 5, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$11,264Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 5, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eli Lilly signs a commercial licensing agreement, technology transfer agreement, or equivalent binding agreement with Peptron that grants Eli Lilly commercial rights to Peptron’s SmartDepot technology by the specified date, 11:59 PM Korea Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only commercial licensing agreements, technology transfer agreements, or equivalent binding agreements that grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to develop, manufacture, sell, or otherwise commercialize Peptron’s SmartDepot technology will qualify.
Co-development agreements will not qualify. Extensions of the existing Technology Evaluation Agreement or other agreements which are non-binding or do not grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to SmartDepot will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eli Lilly and Peptron; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors the "No" outcome at 84.5% implied probability because Eli Lilly and Peptron maintain only an extended platform technology evaluation agreement, focused on non-commercial research applying the SmartDepot sustained-release microsphere platform to peptide candidates. This 14-to-24-month review, originally set to conclude in late 2025 and now running through October 7, 2026, has produced no public signals of advancing to a formal commercial licensing deal. Recent statements confirm ongoing work across multiple candidates yet explicitly exclude key assets like tirzepatide, while Lilly’s broader pivot toward oral obesity formulations adds further uncertainty. With roughly seven weeks remaining, the tight timeline and absence of demonstrated progress or regulatory filings make a completed licensing agreement by the resolution date improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eli Lilly signs a commercial licensing agreement, technology transfer agreement, or equivalent binding agreement with Peptron that grants Eli Lilly commercial rights to Peptron’s SmartDepot technology by the specified date, 11:59 PM Korea Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only commercial licensing agreements, technology transfer agreements, or equivalent binding agreements that grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to develop, manufacture, sell, or otherwise commercialize Peptron’s SmartDepot technology will qualify.
Co-development agreements will not qualify. Extensions of the existing Technology Evaluation Agreement or other agreements which are non-binding or do not grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to SmartDepot will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eli Lilly and Peptron; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only commercial licensing agreements, technology transfer agreements, or equivalent binding agreements that grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to develop, manufacture, sell, or otherwise commercialize Peptron’s SmartDepot technology will qualify.
Co-development agreements will not qualify. Extensions of the existing Technology Evaluation Agreement or other agreements which are non-binding or do not grant Eli Lilly direct commercial rights to SmartDepot will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eli Lilly and Peptron; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,264Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 5, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors the "No" outcome at 84.5% implied probability because Eli Lilly and Peptron maintain only an extended platform technology evaluation agreement, focused on non-commercial research applying the SmartDepot sustained-release microsphere platform to peptide candidates. This 14-to-24-month review, originally set to conclude in late 2025 and now running through October 7, 2026, has produced no public signals of advancing to a formal commercial licensing deal. Recent statements confirm ongoing work across multiple candidates yet explicitly exclude key assets like tirzepatide, while Lilly’s broader pivot toward oral obesity formulations adds further uncertainty. With roughly seven weeks remaining, the tight timeline and absence of demonstrated progress or regulatory filings make a completed licensing agreement by the resolution date improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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